Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Yankees Underpriced vs. Giants)
By Reed Wallach
Every Major League Baseball team takes the diamond on Saturday, and we are looking for bets!
My favorite matchup is out west with the Yankees listed as underdogs against the Giants despite being one of the hottest hitting teams in the big leagues, generating betting value.
I have a breakdown for each game and how I see it, check them out below!
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Blue Jays (-165)
Yusei Kikuchi continues to enjoy a strong season, posting a 3.25 ERA that has been paced by a limited walk rate that has dropped to about five percent.
Kikuchi’s ability to drop his walk number while keeping his breaking pitch as part of the arsenal with a strikeout rate above 21% has led to a big drop in his ERA and underlying metrics.
He should be in good shape to get past the limited Pirates offense.
Rays vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (+140)
Taj Bradley has a high ceiling, enough to make me bet at a big plus number against the Orioles on Saturday.
Bradley has struck out 32% of batters through four starts this season with a nasty split-finger pitch, but has been prone to getting crushed by hard contact if opponents can find the barrel.
I’ll take a shot on the underdog with upside at this number.
White Sox vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Brewers (-155)
The White Sox can’t be trusted against left handed pitching, hitting a big league worst .205 this season, which is what the team will face on Saturday when rookie Robert Gasser takes the mound for the Brewers.
Milwaukee’s southpaw has made four starts, showing promise throughout with 1.96 ERA and a lowly walk rate of just one percent thus far. While his strikeout rate is too low to project elite upside at this rate, only 14%, Chicago’s inability to hit is going to avoid any setbacks on Saturday.
Rangers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Marlins (+105)
Ryan Weathers is one of the few quality arms in the Marlins pitching staff, and the lefty faces a Rangers team that is 24th in OPS against southpaws this season, making it a strong matchup for Miami as home underdogs.
Twins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (+110)
Framber Valdez and the Astros continue to be priced on reputation and not results.
Valdez hasn’t been the same this season, limited by a shoulder injury and a diminished strikeout rate that is below 20% for the first time in his career. He is allowing hard contact on 50% of balls in play thus far and now faces a Twins lineup that is hitting .265 against left handed pitching.
Take underdog Minnesota on Saturday.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+115)
Arizona is sixth in the big leagues against left handed pitching in terms of OPS, setting up for a plus matchup against New York’s Sean Manaea.
Further, I like this matchup for Slade Cecconi, who should get some positive results in the near future with an xBA of just .213 despite a high 6.12 through six appearances this season.
Tigers vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (-115)
Detroit has the pitching edge with Reese Olson vs. Cooper Criswell, enough for me to make a bet against a pair of league average offenses in the month of May.
Olson is elite at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground, and the same goes for the elite Tigers’ bullpen, that’s massive against a Red Sox team that plays in the hitter friendly Fenway Park.
The Tigers’ right handed starter is in the 91st percentile in ground ball percentage with a 1.92 ERA while getting a ton of swings and misses (68th percentile in chase percentage).
Meanwhile, Criswell is 14th percentile in the big leagues in barrel percentage and allows hard contact on 40% of balls in play, which can be problematic against an emerging Tigers lineup.
Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick
Pick: Guardians (-160)
Cleveland has been fantastic all season, and we continue to get a great price on the Guardians as home favorites.
The Guardians are third in the big leagues in OPS against left handed pitching this season, and will face a Nationals team that lacks the firepower that Cleveland has and has a middling bullpen once prospect Mitchell Parker hands the ball over.
Padres vs. Royals Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+100)
I don’t see why the 2024 version of Joe Musgrove should be favored on the road against a standout Royals lineup.
Musgrove has a 5.66 ERA, right on line with his 5.77 xERA, with a diminished set of pitches that ranks in the ninth percentile in terms of run value and in the eight percentile in terms of xBA. He is simply far from his best self in San Diego and will face a Kansas team that is 21-9 at home this season.
Athletics vs. Braves Prediction and Pick
Pick: Braves (-310)
I’m not stepping in front of Chris Sale right now with my money.
The Braves have won eight of Sale’s 10 starts this season and he has been on a tear of late. In the month of May, the former AL Cy Young winner has allowed two earned runs in five starts that has spanned 32 innings.
Reds vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick
Pick: Reds (+120)
Both offenses are really struggling, these are two of the four worst in terms of OPS in the month of May, so I need to key in on the pitching staff, which leaves me with the Reds as valuable road underdogs.
Hunter Greene has worked in more offspeed pitches this season relative to the prior three, resulting in a slight drop in strikeout rate (down from about 30% to 26%), but better results with soft contact. Greene is in the 86th percentile in hard-hit percentage and has seen his ERA drop to 3.06 with an xERA of 2.56 (93rd percentile).
Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick
Pick: Cardinals (+120)
St. Louis is bottom three in the big leagues in OPS against left handed pitching, but I believe the Cards can come through as small underdogs with Sonny Gray on the mound.
Gray is punching out 32% of batters, the best mark of his career, with a career best walk rate of 5.8% as well, making me confident that St. Louis can stay close to Philadelphia and be live to pull away late with a team that has been hitting the ball really well overall despite its failings against southpaws. The Cardinals are sixth in OPS in the month of May.
Angels vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+140)
I’m a bit concerned about Bryce Miller moving forward.
Under the hood, Miller’s 3.48 ERA with an increased strikeout rate to 24% may be a bit flukey. He is walking far more batters from 4% last season, up to 7%, and his xERA sits at 4.09 as he has been allowing a ton of hard contact (14th percentile).
Yankees vs. Giants Prediction and Pick
Pick: Yankees (+100)
New York is vastly underrated at this price as San Francisco’s starter Logan Webb has a fraudulent stat profile.
Webb, a Cy Young contender last season, has a 2.74 ERA that is supported by a 4.65 xERA and a hard hit percentage of 52.8% (first percentile). Webb will face arguably the best hitting lineup in the big leagues in the Yankees, who have the scorching Aaron Judge in the middle of the lineup, hitting .371 with 14 home runs and 27 RBI’s in the month of May.
New York is being listed as an underdog due to a relative unknown in Cody Poteet set to start for the Yankees, who has made just one start this season, but I trust the lineup to get this done.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Dodgers (-350)
I can’t trust the Rockies lineup against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has elite underlying metrics, including an 81st percentile strikeout rate and 81st percentile chase percentage.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.