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Royals vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 7 (Can K.C. Get a Mercy Rule?)

By Joe Summers

Justin Verlander allowed one or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 starts thus far as the Astros host the Royals today
Justin Verlander allowed one or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 starts thus far as the Astros host the Royals today / Jim McIsaac/GettyImages
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The Houston Astros wrap up a series with the Kansas City Royals this afternoon at 2:10 PM EST.

We've got as big of a pitching mismatch as you'll see with Justin Verlander taking on Kris Bubic. Sitting at +260 at WynnBET Sportsbook to win the AL Cy Young award, Verlander is one of MLB's best pitchers with a 10-3 record and 2.03 ERA.

Bubic hasn't quite been as good, to put it lightly. He's 1-5 with a 7.06 ERA, though he did throw five scoreless innings in a win against Houston earlier this year.

Can Houston stay hot as a massive favorite or will Kansas City steal a win on the road?

Let's check out the latest consensus odds to find the value in this Royals vs Astros series finale:

Royals vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Royals +1.5 (+120)
  • Astros -1.5 (-140)

Moneyline:

  • Royals: +262
  • Astros: -324

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Royals vs Astros Prediction and Pick

I'm not sure this line could be big enough. Seriously, MLB may need to institute a mercy rule for this matchup, because the Astros should dominate.

Verlander is in the midst of a truly historic season, and the poor Royals are vastly overmatched. In his last two starts, Verlander held the vaunted Mets and Yankees to one run total and has allowed one or fewer runs in 10 of his 15 starts.

Kris Bubic struggles mightily with command and surrendered as many runs in his last two starts as Verlander did in his last five. Just look at the poor guy's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and imagine the terror he feels about facing the two-time Cy Young winner and former MVP:

In addition to the advantage Verlander provides, Houston also has a vastly superior bullpen and lineup, especially with Kansas City likely missing Bobby Witt Jr due to injury.

Throw in that the Astros' defense is among the league's best and you've got a recipe for a blowout. I'll be surprised if this run line doesn't close at -2.5, so let's jump on Houston early and lock in the best possible value.

Pick: Astros -1.5 (-140)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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