Royals vs. Athletics Prediction and Odds for Friday, June 17 (Total Too Low in Greinke's Return)

The over was 4-0-1 in Zack Greinke's last five starts before getting injured
The over was 4-0-1 in Zack Greinke's last five starts before getting injured / Brace Hemmelgarn/GettyImages

The 22-43 Oakland Athletics host the 21-41 Kansas City Royals tonight in a battle of the two worst American League teams.

Zack Greinke returns from the Injured List for Kansas City in search of his first win of 2022. He has a 5.05 ERA but really struggles on the road, amassing a 6.90 ERA through six starts.

Oakland counters with Frankie Montas, who is 3-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Montas allowed five runs on eight hits in his last outing but has a stellar 2.45 home ERA.

Which struggling team has the edge in this toilet bowl? Will Greinke get his first win back in a Kansas City uniform or does Montas get back on track?

To find the value, let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook for this Royals vs Athletics matchup:

Royals vs Athletics Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Royals: +1.5 (-194)
  • Athletics: -1.5 (+170)


  • Royals: +116
  • Athletics: -136


  • 7 (Over +105/Under -115)

Royals vs Athletics Prediction and Pick

No matchup with heavy winds and Zack Greinke involved should have a total of 7 with plus odds to the over. Greinke lives and dies by contact. He's in the third percentile in strikeout rate, so he relies on his defense to help him make outs.

But if wind is pushing everything straight out to center field, that all-contact approach can lead to a bunch of home runs. Greinke gave up five in his two starts before he went on the Injured List. Given we don't know how effective he'll be after injury, I'm not expecting a shutdown performance.

Both bullpens are terrible, and while Greinke is recovering, Frankie Montas just allowed five runs in his last start. This total should be 8.0 in my opinion, so I love getting the plus odds on over 7.

The over is 4-0-1 in Greinke's last five starts and 8-4-1 in Oakland's last 13 games. Roll with the over and enjoy an overreaction to two struggling lineups.

Pick: Over 7 (+105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.