Royals vs. Guardians prediction and odds for Monday, July 24

The Guardians might have finally figured out how to hit left-handed pitchers and that's bad news for Ryan Yarbrough and the Royals today.
Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Bell (55)
Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Bell (55) / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Even in the awful AL Central, the Kansas City Royals are still buried in last place at 28-73, behind by 25 games. Today, the Royals will visit the Cleveland Guardians for Game 1 of a three-game set. The Guardians are still in the mix in the division, just three games back at 49-50. 

Kansas City has lost five straight and today it'll go with Ryan Yarbrough on the mound against Logan Allen. Yarbrough is 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA in his 12 appearances this season while Allen is 4-2 in his impressive rookie year with a 3.21 ERA in 13 starts. 

Let’s take a look at the odds with the Guardians as home favorites against their division rivals. 

Royals vs. Guardians odds, run line and total

Royals vs. Guardians prediction and pick

The Royals are smart to throw a lefty today because facing lefties is a big weakness for the Guardians.

Cleveland is 25th in team OPS against left-handed pitching this year at .682, and its lineup is left-handed heavy with Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan.

However, lately, the Guardians have been much better.

In July, the Guardians are 17th with a .722 OPS and are led by David Fry who has a 1.078 OPS against lefties this month and Josh Bell and Josh Naylor who both have an OPS over 1.000 against lefties this month and both with over 20 plate appearances. 

Those few hitters have completely turned the tide for this team that has struggled against lefties for two years. It’s a small sample, and actually in the same sample, the Royals are ninth in OPS against lefties.

In June they were 29th. There’s seemingly a lot of volatility to those stats from month-to-month, but right now both teams are hitting lefties well and I’m taking a what have you done lately approach to this game. 

I really like what Logan Allen has done for Cleveland and I think he could have another great start, but he’s had three straight scoreless outings.

That’s not sustainable even though he has only logged 12.2 innings across those three starts. I’m going to take the over in this one because both lineups have hit lefties well this month, even though that’s out of character for both teams. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change