Royals vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Monday, May 30 (Guardians Lineup Finally Wakes up)

The 19-24 Cleveland Guardians host the 16-30 Kansas City Royals today in a battle of two teams quickly seeing their seasons slip away.

Cleveland was expected to compete for an AL Central crown but have struggled tremendously offensively. They've lost four of five but are only 7.5-games behind Minnesota in the division, so they've got time to catch up.

They hope to start gaining ground behind Zach Plesac today. Plesac is coming off a seven-run shellacking at the hands of Houston but has been much better at home, compiling a 3.52 ERA in four starts.

Kansas City, who hoped to take a step forward but have been terrible in every area, will counter with Jonathan Heasley. Making his fourth start, Heasley has done a nice job getting himself out of trouble but has serious command issues. He's walked 13 batters in 13 innings and is playing with fire if he can't control his repertoire.

Can Cleveland take advantage of a soft spot on the schedule or will the Royals pick up a road win? Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET to help find value in this Royals vs Guardians matchup:

Royals vs Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Royals +1.5 (-150)
• Guardians -1.5 (+125)

Moneyline:

• Royals: +136
• Guardians: -146

Total:

• 10.0 (Over -105/Under -115)

Royals vs Guardians Prediction and Pick

Jonathan Heasley feels a bit like a Sour Patch Kid. He's capable of racking up strikeouts and working himself out of trouble, so that's sweet. But he ranks in the first percentile in walk rate, giving out a free pass in over 20% of his at-bats. That's sour.

The Guardians lineup isn't the most patient in the world, but I'm pretty sure even I could take a few walks with the way Heasley is pitching. He walked only six batters in 26.1 innings in the minors this year, so he certainly has the ability to get back on track. But with the league's worst bullpen backing him up, there is no margin for error.

Kansas City's offense is playing well and should continue to find success against Zach Plesac. He doesn't walk many batters, so that's a point for him over Heasley. But he's generally terrible at, um, everything else. Look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile from Baseball Savant:

Oof. That's not good at all. Some would even call it very bad.

Despite the disgusting underlying metrics, most of Plesac's problems have come on the road. He's comfortable pitching in Cleveland and his 3.52 home ERA supports that. It's worth noting that he did throw five scoreless innings against Kansas City on the road last month, so he's familiar with this lineup.

Cleveland hasn't done much to warrant faith lately, but if they're going to turn their season around it has to start with this series. The Royals are 2-8 over their last 10 thanks to their miserable pitching staff while the Guardians are 8-5 in their last 13 at home.

I'll back Cleveland to win, but I also love the over. High winds are expected straight out to center field, and with two poor pitchers I think we see some runs. The over is 7-1 in Kansas City's last eight and 9-5 the Guardians' last 14 at home. If Cleveland can't scratch some runs across the board against the Royals, it may be time to start looking for trade partners and get set for next season.

Pick: Guardians (-145) and Over 10.0 (-105)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.