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Royals vs. Orioles Prediction and Odds for Friday, May 6 (Orioles' Starter Lyles is Better than his ERA Suggests)

By Matt De Saro

Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees / Mike Stobe/GettyImages
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The Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Kansas City Royals in a three-game series scheduled to kick off tonight. Both of these teams are going nowhere fast and I expect this series to be a bit of a stinker from the standpoint of a baseball fan. But, from a sports betting perspective, I see a lot of value in this tilt between underachievers. 

The Royals enter this series in fourth place in the AL Central with an 8-15 record. KC is 1-5 in its last six games and was shut out three times during that span. The Royals have just one series win to their name which doesn’t bode well for their chances at Camden Yards this weekend. 

Things aren’t going any better for Baltimore heading into this game. They lost the first two games of their last series against the Twins and are well below the .500 mark. Baltimore is fifth in the AL East and I expect them to remain there for the next entirety of this season. Probably the next too. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Royals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Royals: -1.5 (+150)
  • Orioles: +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline:

  • Royals: +113
  • Orioles: -123

Total:

  • Total 8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Royals vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

This game feels like a choice between the lesser of two evils with the lack of talent these two teams present. Carlos Hernandez has been just one of the many problems for KC but will get a chance to work out the kings tonight on the road. He enters this game with a 6.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in 18 innings of work. Hernandez’s strikeout to walk ratio has been a killer for the Venezuelans at  8:10. I have no desire to back a team with a guy who lacks basic control on the mound. 

The Orioles’ Jordan Lyles has experienced some ups and downs this season. But, I think he’s a lot better than his numbers suggest and far better than Hernandez. He is coming off six innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox with a K/BB ratio of 6:3. Lyles’ season numbers are skewed in a bad direction thanks mostly to the New York Yankees.

Lyles had the displeasure of facing them twice during their recent hot streak. Last Tuesday they crushed him with three home runs in a 12-8 loss. But he came back and beat a much weaker Red Sox team in what I consider a very strong bounce-back game. I think he keeps it going against a terrible Royals team at home tonight. 

Pick: Orioles ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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