Betsided

Royals vs Tigers Prediction and Odds for Friday, July 1 (Brad Keller is a Must-Fade Even Against a Weak DET Lineup)

By Matt De Saro

Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals
Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals / Jamie Squire/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The AL Central is a mess this season with three of the five teams suffering through losing seasons. Two of those teams, the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals, are set to face off today in what could be the worst game of the afternoon. There is little to like about either one of these teams aside from the fact that each one is playing against a terrible team. Let’s dig into this dumpster fire and see if we can’t at least find some value among the muck. 

Here are the odds for this game. 

Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Royals: +1.5 (-196)
  • Tigers: -1.5 (+162)

Moneyline:

  • Royals: +106
  • Tigers: -124

Total:

  • 8 (Over -118/Under -104)

Royals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

The Tigers enter this game as arguably the worst offense in the league thanks to an ugly .228 team batting average. That ranks them 27th in the MLB and goes a long way to explain why Detroit is fourth in a very weak AL Central. The Tigers also rank 27th in runs scored and 26th in home runs. But that isn’t even the biggest issue with this team. The reason why Detroit isn’t where the Royals are is at least the Tigers have some decent pitching. The same cannot be said for their opponents today. 

The Royals are not only plagued by a bad offense but also have a downright awful pitching staff with a combined ERA of 4.99 and 1.48 WHIP. They lead the league in walks and strike out fewer batters than all but three other teams, 

Brad Keller, today’s starter, is a big reason why the Royals’ ERA is so high. He enters this AL Central brawl at 2-9 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Things have only been going downhill for Keller and his ERA in his last five starts is up to 5.92. The Royals are 1-8 in his last nine starts and I don’t feel great about his chances of pulling it together tonight. 

So far, the Tigers haven’t announced a starter yet for this game. But, Keller has a .282 batting average against this lineup over 116 at-bats. That is no small sample size and tells me that the Tigers have Keller’s number. Keller's terrible numbers against Detroit are enough for me to take them in this matchup of the two worst teams in the division. 

Pick: Tigers ML (-124)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

Home/MLB Odds