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Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, August 17 (Lynch's Ascension Gives Royals Early Edge)

By Joe Summers

Daniel Lynch has a 2.94 ERA in his last seven starts
Daniel Lynch has a 2.94 ERA in his last seven starts / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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As the Minnesota Twins gear up for the last several weeks in a hotly-contested AL Central race, they need strong performances out of their big trade deadline acquisition, Tyler Mahle.

Mahle struggled in his Twins debut but rebounded to throw six scoreless innings against the Angels last week. Perhaps his luck is finally turning around after compiling a 3.39 expected ERA but 4.26 actual ERA.

On the other end, the Kansas City Royals are hoping Daniel Lynch can build off his recent stretch, including blanking the Dodgers over five innings last week. Lynch has a 2.20 ERA this month as he's trying to secure a spot in the 2023 Kansas City rotation.

With two clubs in completely different places to end the year, where does the value lie in this Royals vs Twins matchup? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to help find out:

Royals vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Royals +1.5 (-125)
  • Twins -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Royals +168
  • Twins -183

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over +110 / Under -130)

Royals vs Twins Prediction and Pick

Between Kris Bubic, Brady Singer, and Daniel Lynch, the Royals have to be encouraged about the development of their young pitchers. All three have looked excellent in recent weeks, and Lynch gets an opportunity to spoil the Minnesota Twins' divisional hopes as the Guardians and White Sox keep winning.

Lynch has an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.33 in three of his last four starts, and shut out the Dodgers in his only outing to miss that mark. He may actually give Kansas City a pitching advantage over Tyler Mahle, who has a 3.93 ERA since Mid-June.

Mahle has an expected FIP over 3.84 in six of his last seven starts, including three appearances over 4.74. He's struggling a bit, and the Royals' young lineup is showcasing dramatic improvement.

Kansas City's bullpen cannot be trusted, but Lynch can. Thus, I'll side with him to outduel Mahle and back the Royals in the first five innings.

PICK: Royals First Five Innings +155

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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