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Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Monday, August 15 (In Kris Bubic We Trust)

By Joe Summers

Kris Bubic limited his opponent to three runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts
Kris Bubic limited his opponent to three runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
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Kris Bubic and Joe Ryan, the starting pitchers in today's Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins series opener, seem to be imitating Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsey Lohan from Freaky Friday.

After a horrific start to the season, Bubic has eight straight starts without allowing more than three runs. Ryan, meanwhile, had a stellar start to the year but has a 10.14 ERA in his last three outings. Perhaps they've actually switched bodies?

With the Twins falling 2.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central, the next few days are critical for Minnesota. Kansas City is playing well lately, but Minnesota has to win this series to feel comfortable about its chances moving forward.

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Royals vs Twins matchup:

Royals vs Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Royals +1.5 (-125)
  • Twins -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline:

  • Royals: +170
  • Twins: -185

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Royals vs Twins Prediction and Pick

Kris Bubic really turned a corner for Kansas City over the last two months. He's got a 3.06 ERA since the start of July, giving up as many earned runs in eight starts as Joe Ryan surrendered in his last three.

With an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 3.84 in three of his last five starts, Bubic is rewarding those in the organization who maintained faith in him. Admittedly, I was not someone who believed in him, but I sure do now.

Ryan's underlying metrics have been mediocre all season, and regression is hitting him. In four of his last six starts, he's got an expected FIP above 4.26, including three above 5.67. Those are horrific numbers, and the Royals' improving lineup can capitalize on his mistakes.

Kansas City is 7-3 in its last 10 games as an underdog and won three of four behind Bubic. The Twins, on the other hand, are 1-5 in their last six. At these odds, I'm happy to back the Royals in a battle between clubs going in opposite directions. It doesn't look like Bubic and Ryan are swapping bodies back yet.

Pick: Royals ML (+170)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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