Saint Louis vs. Dayton Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Tuesday, Jan. 16 (Take the Over)

Dayton has earned its place in the AP Top 25. Can the Flyers keep their momentum in their return home?

Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) draws a foul from Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas.
Dayton Flyers forward DaRon Holmes II (15) draws a foul from Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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Dayton is finally back in the AP Top 25 poll, earning the No. 21 spot after a 10-game winning streak. Dayton hasn’t lost since falling to Houston on Nov. 19 and is off to a 3-0 start in the Atlantic-10, coming off a 10-point road win at Duquesne. 

Saint Louis has lost eight of 12 after a 4-0 start to its non-conference schedule. The Billikens dropped three straight, including their first two in conference play, before edging Saint Joseph’s in a high-scoring affair, 88-85, on Wednesday. Can Saint Louis play spoiler or will Dayton continue its winning streak?

Here’s the betting breakdown of this conference clash. 

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Saint Louis vs. Dayton odds, spread and total

Saint Louis vs. Dayton betting trends

  • Saint Louis is 7-8 ATS this season
  • Dayton is 8-6-1 ATS this season
  • Saint Louis is 5-5 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Dayton is 5-5 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 10-5 in Saint Louis games this season
  • The OVER is 8-7 in Dayton games this season

Saint Louis vs. Dayton how to watch 

  • Date: Tuesday, Jan. 16
  • Game time: 8 p.m.
  • Venue: UD Arena
  • How to watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Saint Louis record: 8-8 (1-2 Atlantic-10)
  • Dayton record: 13-2 (3-0 Atlantic-10)

Saint Louis vs. Dayton key players to watch

Saint Louis 

Bradley Ezewiro: The 6-foot-9 junior forward has been eligible for five games this season and has helped the Billikens’ offense excel without Sincere Parker, who broke his foot in November. Ezewiro, a former LSU Tiger and Georgetown Hoya, had a double-double (13 points, 10 rebounds) against Loyola-Chicago and is coming off a 12-point, 6-rebound outing over a season-high 30 minutes in the win over Saint Joseph’s. Ezewiro is averaging 15.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game while shooting 58.1% from the field. 

Dayton

Koby Brea: DaRon Holmes will steal the headlines as Dayton’s leading scorer (18.7) and rebounder (7.3) but Brea is part of UD’s 3-point shooting barrage that makes the Flyers dangerous. Brea ranks second in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage (48.3%), but can he bounce back from his recent cold spell? Over the last three games, Brea is just 6-of-16 shooting and 5-of-14 from the perimeter. He was held to six points in each contest. 

Saint Louis vs. Dayton prediction and pick

Dayton basketball is at its highest point since the 2020 season, when the Flyers were set to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament before it was canceled due to the pandemic. Dayton now returns home with a number next to its name and the Flyers don’t want to lose it.

Dayton has the No. 10 overall offense in KenPom and has a dream matchup against a Saint Louis defense which ranks No. 329. Dayton ranks No. 14 in effective field goal percentage, No. 6 in three-point shooting and 60th from two-point range. Saint Louis is No. 295 in effective field goal percentage, is No. 322 in defending shots inside the arc and doesn’t create a lot of turnovers (No. 331).

Saint Louis has given up at least at least 74 points in eight of its last nine games and Dayton should be able to get whatever it wants offensively. On the flip side, Saint Louis has the ability to engage in a shootout with the Flyers as the No. 24 offense in three-point shooting. Dayton gets its respect in KenPom, but its defense is No. 87 in the nation. 

Dayton should be able to get a margin in this matchup, but the Flyers are just 2-5 ATS as a home favorite this year and 2-3 ATS when laying double figures. Saint Louis has been one of the most profitable teams to the over in the Atlantic-10 this season and that trend continues Tuesday. Take the over. 


Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.