Saint Louis vs Rhode Island Prediction and Odds (Stick with Billikens in Low-Scoring Affair)

The 19-10 Saint Louis Billikens hope to rebound from a two-point loss to Richmond in their last game as they take on the 13-14 Rhode Island Rams tonight at 7:00 PM EST.

Saint Louis is trying to maintain a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They've lost two of their last three but are 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 while the wheels have completely fallen off Rhode Island's season. The Rams are 2-9 in their previous 11 games and are on a 3-9 ATS stretch.

Can the Billikens find their groove in a must-win matchup or will the Rams play spoiler at home?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Saint Louis vs Rhode Island Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Saint Louis -3 (-110)
• Rhode Island +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Saint Louis -160
• Rhode Island +130

Total:

• 135.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Saint Louis vs Rhode Island Prediction and Pick

The Billikens have lost three straight on the road as their defense has started to implode. On the year, they're in the 74th percentile in defensive rating but have been in just the 10th percentile over their last five.

But a matchup against Rhode Island is exactly what the doctor ordered to fix this defensive mess. The Rams are in the 6th percentile in offensive rating over their last five and seem to be allergic to the basketball. They turn it over on 20.9% of their possessions, good for 316th in the country, and have been held to 61 points or fewer in three of their last four.

Saint Louis prefers to work the ball inside, as 69.5% of their attempts are two-point shots. But that's exactly where Rhode Island is at their best. The Rams are in the 99th percentile in block percentage and have the 9th-best two-point defensive shot percentage.

We should expect some offensive regression from Saint Louis tonight. They've shot a blistering 54.5% on two-point attempts over their last five, which would be in the 87th percentile over a full season. But on the year, the Billikens are in only the 54th percentile and make just over 50% of those attempts.

I think this total is a bit too high based on Saint Louis' recent numbers. The under is 9-3 in Rhode Island's last dozen contests and is 5-2 in the Billiken's last seven. Saint Louis should be able to neutralize the Rams' offense and I see them prevailing in a low-scoring, must-win game. They're 4-1-1 ATS over their last six as a favorite and I see that trend continuing here.

Pick: Saint Louis -3 (-110) and Under 135.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.