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Saint Mary's vs. San Francisco Prediction and Odds (Back Dons at Home)

By Reed Wallach

Dec 19, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; San Francisco Dons forward Dzmitry Ryuny (22) and guard Khalil Shabazz (0)
Dec 19, 2021; Tempe, Arizona, USA; San Francisco Dons forward Dzmitry Ryuny (22) and guard Khalil Shabazz (0) / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
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Two teams angling for an NCAA Tournament berth in San Francisco and St. Mary's meet on Thursday night.

These are two of the top 20 defenses in the country and also have strong wins on their resume, another one here could put them firmly in the Tournament field as the calendar flips towards February.

Let's see the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook and make a valuable bet.

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • St. Mary's: +2 (-110)
  • San Francisco: -2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • St. Mary's: +115
  • San Francisco: -135

Total: 129 (Over -110/Under -110)

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco Prediction and Pick

This matchup should set up well for the Dons in front of their home crowd in a massive statement game to help determine the WCC hierarchy.

St. Mary's defense forces you to play from inside, allowing the 7th lowest three-point rate in the country, but when teams get look from the perimeter, they hit them. On the year, opponents are shooting over 34% from deep, but that number is just at 29% in conference play. San Fran is a strong three-point shooting team, right around the national average, but shooting just 29% in conference play. ShotQuality hints at some positive regression in store for them.

While a few three's can go a long way on offense, the Dons have big men like Yauhen Massalski to give the Gaels some trouble. San Fran has the 16th most efficient two-point attack in the country and are more than capable at challenging them on the glass as well to generate second chances.

On the other side, San Fran also shuts off the perimeter, holding foes to the 23rd lowest three-point rate in the country, but have the size to alter the undersized Gaels' backcourt on drives. The home team is top 55 nationally in block and steal rate, they can alter shots all over.

With this game dropping under 2 points, I'm going to be on USF to get the job at home. I believe they have the size inside and athleticism on the perimeter to pull this one out at home.

PICK: San Francisco -2

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 25-31-3 for -7.12 units.

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