Saint Mary's vs. Indiana Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament (Hoosiers Poised To Make a Run)

The 21-13 No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers took down Wyoming in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament Tuesday night, and now face the No. 5 25-7 Saint Mary's Gaels in the first round on Thursday.

Trayce Jackson-Davis dominated the Cowboys with 29 points and Indiana has now covered the spread in seven of their last eight.

Saint Mary's has won five of six, including an upset win over Gonzaga, and are a formidable opponent.

Can the Hoosiers stay hot and pull off an early-round upset or will the Gaels hold serve and take down their Power-5 opponent?

Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to help us find some value in this NCAA Tournament First Round matchup:

Saint Mary's vs Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Saint Mary's -3 (-110)
• Indiana +3 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Saint Mary's: -155
• Indiana: +127

Total:

• 125 (Over -110/Under -110)

Saint Mary's vs Indiana Betting Trends, Insights and Analysis

Saint Mary's

• Regular Season Record: 25-7
• ATS Record:18-11-1
• Over/Under Record: 15-16
• SoS: 49th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 109.7
• Defensive Efficiency: 89.9

• eFG%: 52.6%
• FT%: 76.7%
• 3PT%: 35.1%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: First Round loss in NIT
• Odds to win National Championship: +7500

Indiana

• Overall Record: 20-13
• ATS Record: 19-14
• Over/Under Record: 16-17
• SoS: 22nd

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 107.5
• Defensive Efficiency: 92.6

• eFG%: 51.3%
• FT%: 69.9%
• 3PT%: 33.9%

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
• Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Saint Mary's vs Indiana Prediction and Pick

It seems every year one of the First Four teams makes a deep run - could it be Indiana's turn?

Both teams rely on a strong defense, with Saint Mary's ranking in the 95th percentile in defensive rating and Indiana in the 84th. Offensively, they both want to work the ball inside. A majority of each squad's points come inside the paint, so it'll be a strength vs strength matchup.

Jackson-Davis is on fire and needs to be the best player on the floor for the Hoosiers to pull off an upset. He has at least 20 points in each of his last four games and has a combined 60 in his last two.

I've been really encouraged by the Hoosiers' play with their backs against the wall. They played well enough to beat Iowa in the Big Ten Conference Semifinals and would have if not for a miracle comeback by the Hawkeyes. Saint Mary's is a tough opponent, going 18-9-2 against the spread (ATS) on the year, but if Jackson-Davis continues this kind of play then the Hoosiers will advance.

And I think he will. The Gaels are disciplined but will struggle to match the Naismith Player of the Year Candidate's physicality inside. Saint Mary's depends on inside scoring with a 6th percentile ranking in three-point shot attempts over their last five games, but Indiana has the 7th-best opposing two-point field goal percentage in the country. If the Indiana guards can protect the ball and feed their star, then the Hoosiers are in great shape.

Jackson-Davis is one of the best players in the tournament and will be the best player on the floor in this one. Sometimes that's all it takes. Give me the Hoosiers to stay hot and cover the spread for the eighth time in nine tries.

Pick: Indiana +3 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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