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Saint Mary's vs. Yale Prediction and Odds: Yale Can Cover Big Spread

By Reed Wallach

Yale Bulldogs guard Azar Swain.
Yale Bulldogs guard Azar Swain. / Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
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Yale hits the road to face St. Mary's on Tuesday night, in an intriguing non conference matchup.

While Yale has started out 6-7, well short of its preseason expectations of contending for an Ivy League Championship, the team may be due for some positive regression in the shooting department.

Meanwhile, St. Mary's is 11-3 behind the 11th best defense in the country, will they slow down the Yale perimeter attack? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Yale vs. St. Mary's Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Yale: +12.5 (-110)
  • St. Mary's: -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Yale: +600
  • St. Mary's: -900

Total:

  • 130.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Yale vs. St. Mary's Prediction and Pick

Let's start with the Bulldogs, who are better than their sub .500 record. Per Shot Quality, the team has a good shot profile that should yield an 8-5 record due to their 3-point prowess. The team's "Rim & 3 Rate"* is inside the top 100 nationally, and should be able to take advantage of the Gaels defense, that is vulnerable from beyond the arc.

St. Mary's doesn't allow 3-pointers due to its slow tempo (311th in average defensive possession length) and stringent principles. However, when teams get looks from deep, they hit them to the tune of 34%.

With the likes of Azar Swain and Matthue Cotton due for some better shooting numbers, both below their career averages, I believe the Bulldogs can get a few to fall in this one. Not to mention, Yale plays around the national average in tempo, so it can speed up the Gaels defense a bit more than they are accustomed to.

Yale protects the rock at the 53rd best percentage in the country and can maximize its possessions to stay within this inflated spread.

St. Mary's has impressive wins over the likes of Oregon, Utah State and Missouri State this season, but this is a few too many points to lay here.

PICK: Yale +12.5

*"Rim & 3 Rate" is defined by ShotQuality as the rate at which each team gets a shot at the rim or a 3-point attempt.

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