Saint Peter's vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Peacocks' Due for Heavy Regression)

Only three 15-seeds have ever made it to the Sweet 16 in NCAA men's tournament history: Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, Oral Roberts a season ago, and now the Saint Peter's Peacocks in 2022.

While already knocking off two of the top teams in college basketball in No. 2 Kentucky as well as No. 7 Murray State, the draw for Saint Peter's remains daunting with the 3-seeded Purdue Boilermakers awaiting Friday night at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia at 7:09 p.m. ET.

Can the Peacocks' stingy defense shut down one of the most lethal offenses in the country and become the first 15-seed to make an Elite Eight?

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, along with each team's statistical profile and a best bet on the game:

Saint Peter's vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Saint Peter's +12.5 (-110)
• Purdue -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Saint Peter's +650
• Purdue -1400

Total: 136 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Saint Peter's vs. Purdue Analysis

Saint Peter's Peacocks

• Regular Season Record: 21-11
• ATS Record: 22-9
• Over/Under Record: 13-18
• SoS: 136th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 100.5 (225)
• Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 93.5 (28)

• eFG%: 48.1% (263)
• FT%: 69.3% (265)
• 3PT%: 35.1% (88)

• Last Year's Tournament Result: N/A
• Odds to Win National Championship: +10000

Purdue Boilermakers

• Regular Season Record: 29-7
• ATS Record:15-20-1
• Over/Under Record: 19-17
• SoS: 9th

• Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 121.4 (2)
• Defensive Efficiency: 98.3 (85)

• eFG%: 56.8% (4)
• FT%: 70.8% (204)
• 3PT%: 38.8% (4)

• Last Year’s Tournament Result: First Round
• Odds to win National Championship: +1000

Saint Peter's vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

This is a tough one for your boy.

On one hand, I could stroll down narrative street, ride with the Peacocks, and even if I buy Purdue to win outright, we still walk away knowing there was support for Shaheen Holloway's crew on this magical ride before he inevitably takes the newly available Seton Hall gig.

Additionally, I also wrote about how Texas Tech's fantastic defense will be the difference in neutralizing a dangerous Duke offense! Why wouldn't the same rules apply here?

Naturally, I'll straddle the fence and focus on the total instead.

Purdue will now have two games of tape on Saint Peter's, and a better understanding of their help defense to then scheme up open looks for Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams and Sasha Stefanovic. They also have Zach Edey inside, who stands in at 7'4', 295. For comparison's sake, Saint Peter's tallest and biggest player is freshman Clarence Rupert who comes in at 6'8" and 245 as a freshman.

Saint Peter's has also been on the right side of regression, particularly in their game against Kentucky last Thursday. Via ShotQuality metrics, Kentucky wins that game based on the quality of shots taken 98% of the time!

Between a likely inability to stop Purdue down low, as well as variance to come calling, I don't see this going well for the Peacocks if Purdue makes shots early. I expect the Boilers to cover, but I prefer the over even more.

LEAN: OVER 136 (-110)

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