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Saints vs. 49ers Prediction and Odds for NFL Week 12 (New Orleans is Better Than Record Indicates)

By Iain MacMillan

Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) looks to
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) looks to / Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
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The New Orleans Saints are still alive in the race for the NFC South, despite sitting at 4-7. With that being said, they need to start winning games in a hurry to have a shot at catching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will be 5-5 heading into Week 12.

New Orleans has a tough test ahead of them in the San Francisco 49ers, who lead the NFL in net yards per play and could be a top contender in the NFC.

Let's dive into the odds for the game and then I'll give you my best bet.

Saints vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, and Total

Saints vs. 49ers Betting Trends

  • Saints are 2-4 ATS in their last six games
  • Saints are 9-4 straight up in their last 13 games against 49ers
  • The OVER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams in San Francisco
  • 49ers are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games
  • The UNDER is 13-5 in the 49ers' last 18 games
  • 49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against NFC opponents

Saints vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick

The 49ers have established themselves as legitimate contends in the NFC, but can they cover a huge spread against the Saints? I'm not so sure.

The Saints may be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, but they're seventh in the NFL in net yards per play. That tells me that they've been playing better than their record indicates.

A big reason for their less than stellar record is that they rank dead last in the league in average turnover margin at -1.1. The 49ers have also struggled in this area, ranking 22nd in average turnover margin at -0.1.

As dominant as the 49ers defense has been, they've struggled stopping their opponent on third down, ranking 23rd in opponent third down conversion rate, well below the Saints who rank 12th in that area. The Saints also outrank them in red zone defense, coming in at fifth compared to the 49ers at 22nd.

The 49ers are the better team, there's no doubt about that, but the Saints have enough areas of strength that the almost double-digit spread can't be justified. I'll take the points with New Orleans.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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