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Saints vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 1 (Atlanta Underrated in NFC South Rivalry)

By Iain MacMillan

Jan 9, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) tries to
Jan 9, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) tries to / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons kick-off their 2022 NFL campaign with an NFC South rivalry matchup in Atlanta.

The Saints start a new era under new head coach Dennis Allen, with Sean Payton retiring in the offseason. The Falcons will also begin a new era of sorts, with longtime quarterback Matt Ryan now on the Indianapolis Colts; replaced with offseason signing Marcus Mariota as the Week 1 starter.

Which team starts their season off with a win, or perhaps more importantly, a cover?

Let's dive into the odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Saints vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

  • Saints -5.5 (-110)
  • Falcons +5.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Saints -225
  • Falcons +190

Total:

  • 42.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Trends

  • Saints are 4-1 against the spread in last five games vs. Falcons.
  • Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in Atlanta.
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
  • Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

It's no secret that the Falcons aren't expected to be a good team this season. Matt Ryan is gone, and they're in the early stages of a complete rebuild.

But are they deserving of being 5.5-point underdogs to New Orleans?

There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Saints. It's the first time they've had a new head coach since 2006. Offensively, Jameis Winston is back as the starting quarterback after missing the two thirds of last season due to an injury, and Michael Thomas is finally back in the lineup. There's also the concern of Alvin Kamara's availability, and if he return to a high-level of production. Will their top-5 defense from a season ago hold up?

Before I'm willing to lay 5.5 points on a team, I need to have a clear picture of just how good they are. I don't have that for the Saints entering this season.

Also, let's not forget, the Falcons have a lot of skill in a few positions. A.J. Terrell is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and they signed Casey Hayward in the offseason to hold down the other side. There's also plenty of receiver groups worse than Drake London, Bryan Edwards, and tight end, Kyle Pitts.

I'll back the Falcons and the points at home in this Week 1 rivalry.

PICK: Falcons +5.5 (-110)

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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