Saints vs. Patriots: Odds, Spread, Over/Under and Prediction for NFL Week 3

Back the Patriots on Sunday with a lot of factors going against the Saints.
Back the Patriots on Sunday with a lot of factors going against the Saints. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Saints struggled in Week 2, losing to the Panthers 26-7, after looking like world beaters in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers

How should we handicap the Saints as they head to New England for what is technically their third straight road game against the Patriots?

New England is 1-1, but are a late game fumble away from likely being 2-0 and the defense has looked stout thus far. Now, can they lock down Jameis Winston like the Panthers did?

Here are the opening odds for this inter-conference showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Patriots vs. Saints Spread, Odds and Over/Under


Patriots: -3 (-105)

Saints: +3 (-115)


Patriots: -150

Saints: +130

Over/Under: 43 (Over -110/Under -110)

Patriots vs. Saints Betting Trends

  • Both the Patriots and Saints have gone UNDER the total in their first two games
  • Since Sean Payton became head coach in 2006, the Saints have the third best ATS mark in the league, 140-116-2
  • The Saints also have the third best ATS mark as an underdog under Payton, going 46-29-2 ATS

Patriots vs. Saints Prediction and Pick

The line feels correct at -3, but there are several factors playing against the Saints, mainly with the schedule, leading me to backing New England.

The competition has been underwhelming against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, but New England has six sacks through two games with its revamped defense. Free agent acquisition Matthew Judon has two pressures already and second year linebacker Josh Uche has three sacks. Not to mention, Dont’a Hightower has 10 tackles after sitting out last season. 

While Jameis Winston looked sharp in Week 1, he showed his sloppy tendencies in Week 2, tossing two ill-advised interceptions. 

COVID-19 protocols along the coaching staff have added another wrinkle to the start of the season for the Saints, but so have injuries. Defensive tackle Marcus Davenport and linebacker Kwon Alexander are on injured reserve, and Marshon Lattimore missed Week 2 after undergoing hand surgery (it appears that Lattimore is on track to play on Sunday). 

New Orleans defense has been able to bottle up the rushing attack, but in Week 2, the Panthers were able to pass all over the unit. Carolina averaged less than three yards per carry, but Sam Darnold was able to complete 26-of-38 passes and the team converted more than 50% of its third downs. 

Overall, the Saints defense couldn't get off the field, only having the ball for 21:38.

On top of that, I’ll take Bill Belichick to scheme up a defensive game plan to bait Jameis Winston into mistakes.

Pick: Patriots -3

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