Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6

Why the total has value on Thursday night
Dec 20, 2022; Boca Raton, Florida, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter (7) runs the ball
Dec 20, 2022; Boca Raton, Florida, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter (7) runs the ball / Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
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Liberty has jumped into Conference USA this season, and looks to be the class of the conference at 4-0, winning every game by double digits.

The team is a massive favorite at home against Sam Houston State, who is winless in its first season in the FBS ranks. With oddsmakers giving Liberty a significant edge, the better question may be if the the Flames can remain unbeaten against the spread?

Let's dive in and find the best bet for Sam Houston State vs. Liberty:

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Liberty vs. Sam Houston State Betting Trends

  • Liberty is 4-0 against the spread (ATS)
  • Sam Houston State is 2-2 ATS this season despite being 0-4 straight up
  • Sam Houston State has gone OVER in its past two games

Liberty vs. Sam Houston State How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, October 5
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Williams Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Sam Houston State Record: 0-4
  • Liberty Record: 4-0

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Sam Houston State

Keegan Shoemaker: Shoemaker had his best game under center this season last week, passing for 285 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, but the team blew a late lead against Jacksonville State.

Liberty

Kaidon Salter: Salter has been at the helm of this new-look Liberty offense with first year head coach Jamey Chadwell. The team has been on point early, 32nd in EPA/Play and doing it through the air mostly, ranking 18th in EPA/Play. Salter has an 11-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is averaging 10 yards per dropback.

If you want to bet on this Thursday night matchup, make sure to do it at Caesars Sportsbook, who is giving new users a $1,000 free bet upon signing up!

Sam Houston State vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

The Flames offense is likely going to dictate this game as Sam Houston State has been without a doubt the worst offense in the country. The team is averaging less than four yards per play and has scored only five touchdowns in four games, and will face a Liberty defense that has been making havoc plays all over, forcing 12 turnovers in four games and allowing a completion percentage of less than 50% on the year.

Sam Houston State won't challenge this Liberty defense on the ground like it may be vulnerable too, the Flames are allowing more than four yards per carry, 92nd in the nation. Meanwhile, the Bearkats defense has been what the unit can fall back on, right in the middle of the country in terms of yards per play allowed.

With scoring expected from only one side, it's tough not to take a look at the under. Liberty has been able to score at least 33 points in every game this season, but I expect that we see a low output from each side as SHSU looks to implement a ground-based approach and struggle to sustain drives while also keeping Liberty in check in a likely lopsided game script.

Let's go under on Thursday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!