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Samford vs. ETSU Prediction, Odds and Key Players for SoCon Championship Final (Back the Bulldogs)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Samford-ETSU. 

By Shelby Dermer

Nov 6, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) guards Samford's Achor Achor.
Nov 6, 2023; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) guards Samford's Achor Achor. / Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
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Samford has been dominant all season and is now one victory away from its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2000. The Bulldogs are big favorites Monday night against East Tennessee State to advance to March Madness. 

ETSU, bidding for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017, is trying to cap off a Cinderella run to March Madness. The No. 7 Buccaneers took out No. 2 UNC-Greensboro and No. 3 Chattanooga over the weekend. Can they notch another upset in Asheville Monday night? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Samford vs. ETSU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

  • ETSU +9.5 (-108)
  • Samford -9.5 (-112)

Moneyline

  • ETSU: +400
  • Samford: -535

Total

  • 147.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Samford vs. ETSU Betting Trends

  • Samford is 18-13 ATS this season
  • ETSU is 18-14 ATS this season
  • Samford is 15-10 ATS as a favorite this season
  • ETSU is 13-8 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The OVER is 15-16 in Samford games this season
  • The OVER is 18-14 in ETSU games this season

Samford vs. ETSU How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, March 11
  • Game time: 7 p.m. EST
  • Venue: US Cellular Center
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN+
  • Samford record: 28-5
  • ETSU record: 19-15

Samford vs. ETSU Key Players to Watch

Samford

Achor Achor: Samford’s leading scorer and rebounder, Achor, a junior forward, is averaging 15.5 points and 6 rebounds per game this season. Achor is coming off a dominant performance in the SoCon semifinal, posting a 28-point, 14-rebound double-double. 

ETSU 

Quimari Peterson: Peterson was ETSU’s leading scorer for the first time since Valentine’s Day with a 27-point, 7-rebound performance in Sunday’s semifinal overtime win over Chattanooga. Peterson was just 8-of-24 from the field, but hit five 3-pointers to help the Buccaneers’ upset effort. In two conference tournament games, Peterson has combined for 44 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists. 

Samford vs. ETSU Prediction and Pick 

Samford is one of the nation’s best offenses and had plenty of success in a pair of regular-season wins over ETSU. In those two meetings, Samford combined to shoot 53.2% from the field and knock down 21 three-pointers. Will they see the same success Monday night?

Given the season-long metrics for Samford’s offense, you can count on it. The Bulldogs are No. 7 in KenPom in effective field goal percentage. Samford is No. 6 in three-point shooting and No. 20 in shooting from 2-point range while playing at the No. 15 pace in the country. ETSU’s defense is in the bottom half of the Southern Conference in every major shooting metric and struggles mightily in the paint.

Samford is not the team you want to play with short rest. ETSU, which is coming off an overtime win on Sunday, will face the high-paced Bulldogs, which have the depth to stay fresh. Samford is No. 3 in the nation in bench minutes this season (ETSU is No. 280). On the offensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers are No. 300 or worse in every shooting metric and the biggest advantage for Samford is in ball security. The Bulldogs are No. 15 in the nation in turnover percentage while ETSU coughs it up at the third-highest rate in the Southern Conference (12.2 per game). Lay the points with Samford to pull away. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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