San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction and Odds (Bank on Another Low-Scoring Affair)

Two of the best teams in the Mountain West square off tonight as the 21-6 Boise State Broncos host the 17-6 San Diego State Aztecs at 7:00 PM MST.

Last month, Boise State beat the Aztecs 42-37 in a remarkably low-scoring game. San Diego State scored just 14 points in the second half and the teams combined to shoot 30/102 from the field.

Should bettors expect another defensive battle or should we look elsewhere for value in the rematch?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

San Diego State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• San Diego State +2 (-110)
• Boise State -2 (-110)

Moneyline:

• San Diego State: +110
• Boise State: -130

Total:

• 119.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

In case you didn't notice from the 42-37 score in the first matchup that could have been a football score, these are two defensive-oriented teams. The Aztecs have the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the entire country but are just 204th in offensive efficiency, while the Broncos are 12th and 107th, respectively.

Both teams rank outside the top 275 in tempo and are content to play a slow, drawn-out game. San Diego State has won five in a row but covered the spread just twice in that span, while Boise State is 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last six.

Home-court advantage hasn't been much of a boon for the Broncos either, as they're 1-5 ATS in their previous six home games.

I think we'll see another tight contest and love the under in this one. While I don't think they'll combine for fewer than 80 points again, we've got a lot of room to work with before we get up to the 120 points they'll need to cash the over.

Recent performances from both squads are skewing the total too high. The over is 6-1 in Boise State's last seven and 3-1 in San Diego State's last four, so bettors may be tempted to ride those trends. But those results are giving us value.

With the styles these teams play and their defensive prowess, it's going to be tough for either team to get to 55, let alone the 60 they'll need for an over. Give me the under 119.5 (-110) as the under moves to 16-8 in Aztecs games and we enjoy every clank of the rim tonight.

Pick: Under 119.5 (-110)