Two Mountain West foes meet on Friday night with one team in a precarious position.
Boise State's offense has been one of the worst in the country out of the gate and are going to wholesale changes after firing their offensive coordinator after last week's lost to UTEP and now starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier is in the transfer portal.
Boise will turn to backup Taylen Green, who has some experience this season, against a stout defense in San Diego State at home. What should we expect on Friday night?
Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
San Diego State vs. Boise State Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. Boise State Betting Trends
- Boise State is 4-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in Mountain West play under head coach Andy Avalos
- San Diego State is 12-7 ATS as an underdog under Brady Hoke
- Boise is 0-3-1 ATS this season
- San Diego State is 1-3 ATS this season, but 1-1 as an underdog
- Both teams are 1-3 to the OVER this season
San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick
There is plenty of turnover on the Boise State side of the ball leading to many questions heading into Friday night's affair. It can't get much worse though after the team averaged 3.3 yards per play against UTEP on the road last week.
The drop off from Bachmeier to Green may not be that much and it's not like San Diego State has been lighting the world on fire on offense, failing to score more than 20 points in three of four games this season.
The Aztecs were able to grind out a 17-14 win at home last week against Toledo, but were outgained by nearly 100 yards in the victory, benefitting from a plus-3 turnover margin.
With a total in the 30's and a team on the backup quarterback and new offensive coordinator, I'm inclined to take the points with San Diego State, but the offense doesn't inspire much confidence.
If there is one path to beating a strong Boise defense, it's through the air. The team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense and Braxton Burmeister is going to be tasked with finding holes in the secondary. It may not happen often, but one or two plays that can flip the field can be enough to stay within one score.
Both teams are outside the top 100 in terms of plays per minute, so the under could be worth a look as well given that both offenses are incredibly methodical.