San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 8
By Josh Yourish
Two Mountain West foes square off Saturday evening as the San Diego State Aztecs look to turn their season around when they head to Nevada to face the struggling Wolf Pack.
A year ago, these were two of the best teams in the conference, but in 2022 that hasn't been the case. San Diego State went 7-1 in conference and 12-2 overall, but now they have a 1-1 conference record and 3-3 record overall. It’s gotten even worse for Nevada. The Wolf Pack were 8-5 in 2021 and they’ve already matched that number of losses at 2-5.
Maybe a change at quarterback will breathe some new life into the Aztecs as Jalen Mayden replaced Braxton Burmeister in their 16-14 win over Hawaii two weeks ago. Nevada comes off a loss against the Rainbow Warriors last week.
Here's how the oddsmakers have handicapped Saturday night's Mountain West matchup:
San Diego State vs. Nevada Odds, Spread and Total
Nevada and SDSU Betting Trends
- Nevada is 2-5 ATS
- SDSU is 1-5 ATS
- SDSU is 0-3-1 ATS in their last three road games
- Nevada is 4-0 ATS in last four games vs. SDSU
San Diego State vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick
Braxton Burmeister didn’t work out at San Diego State for the same reason he didn’t work out at Virginia Tech, and the same reason he didn’t work out at Oregon before that. He can’t throw the ball.
It's remarkable that It took Jalen Mayden exactly one game to become the team’s leading passer.
Two weeks ago against Hawaii, Mayden completed 24 of 36 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown. In the five games prior, Burmeister completed 36 of 72 passes for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Burmeister is finally moving to wide receiver coming out of the bye week and I wish him the best. He’s a very athletic player, but had no business starting games at quarterback for three different teams.
The Aztecs are 7th-worst in total offense this season, but I fully expect Mayden to unlock them, even though they scored just 16 points in his first start. The good news for SDSU is that Nevada’s offense isn’t much better, ranking 9th-worst in total offense. The total is ridiculously low in this game for a reason.
Even with Mayden potentially changing things for SDSU, the real difference here is rest. Nevada will be at home, but had to travel to Hawaii last week and the Aztecs were on bye. Fatigue will likely become a factor late in this game and I'll back San Diego State to cover in the fourth quarter.
Pick: SDSU -7 (-107)
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change