San Diego State vs. Stanford Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, November 15 (Aztecs Defense Too Much for Cardinal)
By Reed Wallach
The San Diego State Aztecs entered the season as one of the national elite and they have looked like it so far, scoring 80+ in two games and beating a quality BYU club through the first week of the season.
San Diego State hits the road for the first time this season, travelling to take on Stanford, who lost on a netural floor last weekend to Wisconsin. Stanford is 1-1 on the season and hoping to score an early season signature victory, but can they score on this SDSU defense that is consistently in the top 10 nationally year over year?
Let's look at the odds and find the best bet:
San Diego State vs. BYU Odds, Spread and Total
San Diego State vs. Stanford Prediction and Pick
The Aztecs defense is going to cause fits for this Stanford offense that lacks a strong ball handler to penetrate and create open looks for the likes of dead-eye shooters like Spencer Jones (39% 3-point shooter on his career). SDSU's defense is fnatastic at turning their opponent over, nearly 26% of plays through the early part of the season in their patent pack-line defense, and the Cardinal are sloppy with the ball, 283rd so far in TO rate after ranking 349th a year ago.
On the other side, San Diego State is scoring in bunches early in the season, a change of tune form the past few seasons under Brian Dutcher. However, it's because they are forcing so many turnovers and getting easy fast break points that they haven't had to run as much half court offense.
With the sloppy play of Stanford, I have to lay it with SDSU on the road. This is a team that is going to be an advanced metric darling all season with their disciplined defense and the likes of Matt Bradley anchoring their offense that is physical inside and adept at getting to the free throw line. The Aztecs are 321st in three-point rate this season, a typical mark for a Dutcher team and Stanford's inability to stop dribble penetration will keep them from covering this spread.
Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.