San Diego State vs. UConn Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
By Reed Wallach
The UConn Huskies look dominant in its pursuit of a second straight National Championship, but must take down last year’s runner up to get back to the Elite Eight.
San Diego State will look to avenge its National Championship Game loss to UConn last season by spoiling its bid at a repeat in the Sweet 16 on Thursday. The Aztecs have beaten two mid-majors en route to the second weekend, setting up a battle between two of the best big men in the country in Jaedon LeDee against UConn’s Donovan Clingan.
UConn is a double digit favorite yet again, but can SDSU’s defense play up to the task?
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San Diego State vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total
UConn vs. San Diego State Betting Trends
- UConn is 24-12 against the spread (ATS) this season
- San Diego State is 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season
- San Diego State is 14-20 ATS this season against Division 1 opponents
San Diego State vs. UConn How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, March 28
- Game Time: 7:39 PM EST
- Venue: TD Garden
- How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV
- San Diego State Record: 26-10
- UConn Record: 33-3
San Diego State vs. UConn Key Players to Watch
San Diego State
Jaedon LeDee: LeDee has followed up a stellar regular season with SDSU by dominating the first two rounds of the tournament. He has scored 58 points while grabbing 17 rebounds and making 20-of-30 field goal attempts. However, he faced two mid-majors where his physicality was overwhelming, that won’t be the case against UConn.
UConn
Donovan Clingan: Like LeDee, Clingan has been lightly challenged thus far, combining for 33 points and 22 rebounds and added eight blocks in the 17-point win against Northwestern on Sunday in the Round of 32. The sophomore must avoid foul trouble against LeDee, but his ability to shut off the rim has changed opponents’ game plans all year, not to mention his willing passing on the other end.
San Diego State vs. UConn Prediction and Pick
How does San Diego State hang with UConn?
It’s going to be a tall order, especially considering that UConn’s free flowing motion offense can expose SDSU’s leaky off-ball defense. The Aztecs grade out as a poor defensive team against cuts, per Synergy Sports, where the Huskies rank in the 93rd percentile on offense.
The team can shoot it at an elite clip, finish around the rim, and get to the free throw line at a tidy rate. San Diego State’s primary focus should be on stopping UConn in transition and force this team to play in the halfcourt. Danny Hurley’s bunch is outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo, so it’s fine playing in the halfcourt, but San Diego State’s defense is far better in that regard.
With LeDee roaming the paint, and the Aztecs’ pick-and-roll defense shining, the team will look to string together stops in a more methodical matchup.
San Diego State’s defense is fantastic, but the offense will likely be up against it and be the reason for the team’s downfall.
UConn’s defense won’t pressure the ball, but its length is stifling for opponents, third in effective field goal percentage allowed on the 46th lowest three-point rate in the nation.
Meanwhile, the Aztecs offense ranks outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage, anchored down by a 31% three-point percentage.
The Aztecs best offense is through LeDee in the post, but Clingan has the size to slow him down. I’d say the best outcome for SDSU is that Clingan gets into foul trouble, forcing the team to downsize a bit.
Overall, though, this sets up to be an under matchup with SDSU’s fine game planning slowing this game down, but the offense not doing enough to pull off the titanic upset.
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