San Diego State vs. UNLV Prediction, Odds, Against Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12

Friday’s late game features a matchup between Mountain West West Division rivals in primetime action.

No. 22 ranked San Diego State heads to Allegiant Stadium in Sin City against the UNLV Rebels in Week 12. The 9-1 Aztecs are in first place with a 5-1 conference record; ahead of Fresno State by a game at 5-2. UNLV on the other hand is 2-4, and while they're out of the running for the title, they can spoil the Aztec’s season with an upset win. 

SDSU comes off a close 23-21 win over Nevada on Saturday but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites. It was the third game in a row and the fourth in five games that SDSU didn’t cover a spread. 

On the flipside, UNLV is dreadful this season with a 2-8 record. However, those two wins did come in the last two weeks and the Rebels are a healthy 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season. It isn’t often that a team opens the season with eight straight losses then wins two games in a row. It will be interesting to see if they can keep this game close.

Here are the odds for this Mountain West matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

San Diego State vs. UNLV Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

• San Diego State: -12.5 (-110) 

• UNLV: +12.5  (-110) 

Moneyline:

• San Diego State: -475

• UNLV: +375

Total:

• 39.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

San Diego State vs. UNLV Betting Trends

• The UNDER is 5-1 in the Aztecs’ last six games. 
• The Aztecs are 13-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 19 games against the Rebels.
• The Aztecs are 4-1 straight-up (SU) in their last five games at UNLV. 
• The Rebels are 2-4 SU in their last 16 games. 
• The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five games between these two teams. 

San Diego State vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

The Rebels have certainly found their groove. Unfortunately for them, it came about eight losses too late. Their last win was over Hawaii in a game that saw Cameron Friel pass for 172 yards and two interceptions. Luckily for the Rebels, Charles Williams ran for 266 yards and a trio of touchdowns. The game brought Friel’s season TD/INT ratio down to 6/10 which is objectively awful. Williams might have been able to put the team on his back to beat the Rainbow Runners but the Aztecs are a much better team. In fact, the Aztecs have the sixth-best rushing defense in the nation in terms of opponent yards per rush and opponent rushing yards per game. 

Aat the core of this game, you have a Rebels QB who can’t be trusted. The strategy of running the ball won’t work because SDSU is too good on defense. I just don’t see how UNLV competes here. I think the UNDER is a good bet here as well but for this article, I will be taking the Aztecs as a road favorite. 

Pick: San Diego State Aztecs -12.5 (-110)