San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction and Odds (Can the Aztecs Continue to Succeed Without Quality Offense?)

Wednesday night’s college basketball nightcap features a Mountain West Conference clash between the Utah State Aggies and San Diego State Aztecs. After a three-game homestead, the Aztecs hit the road to Utah for this MW battle after splitting regular-season games with Utah State last season. San Diego State brings an 11-4 overall record into this game along with a 3-1 record in the Mountain West. 

Utah State, meanwhile, is 10-9 overall but has one big reason to win this game. Revenge. While these two teams split their regular-season series, the Aztecs beat the Aggies in the Mountain West Championship game 68-57. That is the embarrassing loss that stays with a team across seasons and you best believe that Ryan Odom has this game circled on his calendar. 

Here are the odds for this Mountain West matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

San Diego State vs. Utah State Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

• San Diego State -1 (-110)
• Utah State +1 (-110)

Moneyline:

• San Diego State -115
• Utah State -105

Total: 130 (Over -110/Under -110)

San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick

While San Diego State is the better team in terms of wins and losses, they are the definition of one-dimensional. This is because the Aztecs have the No. 2 ranked scoring defense in the nation to go along with the #292nd scoring offense. If this were an NFL team, they would be the 2009 Jets. If they were a boxer they would be Floyd Mayweather. While I agree with the old adage “offense wins games, defense wins championships,” some level of scoring ability is still required. Aside from offensive rebounding, the Aztecs rank outside of the top 225 in terms of assists per game, assists per field goal made, three-point shooting percentage, shooting efficiency, and pretty much every single metric I could find. The worst of it all is a 66 percent mark from the charity stripe. That is just downright ugly. 

Yet, the Aztecs continue to win. They are 6-1 in their last seven games and are coming off a huge win over UNLV 80-55 on Monday. 

Utah State, meanwhile, can actually score and ranks 36th in shooting percentage and 14th in assists per game. Their defense is average but will be more than enough to contain the Aztecs' limp offense. Utah State is a much better team than their win/loss record suggests and I think they are a good bet for an upset victory with their home crowd behind them. It won't be easy, and the Aggies will get frustrated by this defense. But, in the end, I like their chances to get there.

Lean: Utah State -105 to win