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San Diego State vs. UTSA Updated Prediction and Odds for Frisco Bowl

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2021; Carson, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs players celebrate after the game
Nov 26, 2021; Carson, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs players celebrate after the game / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
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Two of the best Group of 5 teams meet in the Frisco Bowl when San Diego State and UTSA face off.

UTSA will be without the services of their star running back Sincere McCormick, who rushed for 1,479 yards and 15 touchdowns, and will be going up against one of the strongest defenses in the country in San Diego State.

The Roadrunners enter this one after defeating Western Kentucky in the Conference-USA Championship game while SDSU came up short in their title game, losing to Utah State in the Mountain West title matchup.

Let's get the updated odds for the Frisco Bowl, which are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

UTSA vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • UTSA: +3 (-110)
  • San Diego State: -3 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • UTSA: +140
  • San Diego State: -160

Total: 49 (Over -110/Under -110)

UTSA vs. San Diego State Betting Trends

  • UTSA is 4-0 ATS and SU as an underdog this season
  • San Diego State is 2-6 ATS as a favorite, but 6-1 SU
  • UTSA has played 7 of 13 games UNDER the total
  • UTSA is 3-1 to the OVER as an underdog

UTSA vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

Our Iain McMillain broke down the total for the Frisco Bowl, and is siding with the total due to defensive prowess of each team and the fact that UTSA will be without McCormick.

"San Diego State ranks 17th in rushing play percentage, but the strength of UTSA’s defense is in stopping the run (10th in opponent yards per carry, limiting opponents to an average of 3.3 yards on the ground). San Diego State’s offense, in general, isn’t good, ranking 107th in yards per play. Now they face a defense who is built to stop the running game. That's not a good a combination for offensive success.

Meanwhile, San Diego State should be able to do whatever it wants to stop UTSA’s high-powered offense. The Aztecs boast one of the top defenses in the country. They're 6th in opponent yards per play, 10th in opponent points per play, 11th in opponent yards per pass attempt, 21st in opponent completion percentage, and 6th in opponent yards per carry.

This game has all the makings of a defensive battle. I’ll take the UNDER 49."

Pick: UNDER 49

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