San Francisco vs. Fresno State Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 16 (Total is Too Low in Fresno)
By Ben Heisler
The 3-0 San Francisco Dons travel down to Fresno, California for a WCC vs. MWC matchup in mid-November against the 1-1 Fresno State Bulldogs.
Fresno is a short favorite at home. Are they deserving of it against a battle tested San Francisco squad? Or are oddsmakers potentially laying a trap?
Here are the latest odds for tonight's late game matchup:
San Francisco vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total
San Francisco vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick
My first inclination was to back the Dons as short dogs on the road against a Bulldogs team that only got 69 points on Fresno Pacific, followed by a seven-point loss to UC Santa Barbara on a neutral site the following Friday.
However, the oddsmakers appear to know something I don't, despite an overwhelming amount of data that suggest San Francisco makes much more sense as the favorite.
Instead, I'll back the over at 132.5, a super-low total given what the Dons are capable of, and perhaps the Bulldogs as well.
For years under Todd Golden, San Francsico was an elite three-point shooting team, but so far this year, they're only hitting 30.6% of shots from beyond the arc. They have, however, looked excellent from inside the line, ranked 23rd in the country in 2-point percentage at 61.8%. While Chris Gerlufsen may run a much different style than Golden, there's still plenty of players on the roster brought in to shoot, and I think we'll start to see some more made shots as the season goes on.
Fresno State is middle of the pack in both outside shooting and from inside the line, ranked 155th in the country in both statistics, but still 33.3% from 3-point range. Both teams also get to the free throw line quite a bit, which should open up some more opportunities to add points on the board.
It's a low total featuring two teams that are looking for some positive offensive regression to the mean. Let's hope we see it.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.