The 24-8 San Francisco Dons have a huge opportunity to book a trip to the NCAA Tournament when they take on the 24-3 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference Semifinal tonight at 6:00 PM PST.
San Francisco has rattled off two straight wins and covers after losing 89-73 to the Bulldogs last month, while Gonzaga saw their 17-game winning streak snapped against Saint Mary's in their last time out.
Will the Bulldogs bounce back to deliver a crushing blow to San Francisco's March Madness hopes or will the Dons prove a scrappy underdog and keep their season alive?
Let's check out the odds via WynnBET to find some value:
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Odds, Spread and Total
- San Francisco +15 (-110)
- Gonzaga -15 (-110)
- San Francisco: +750
- Gonzaga: -1200
- 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
San Francisco vs Gonzaga Prediction and Pick
Look, I know Gonzaga has two double-digit victories over San Francisco this year and I know the Bulldogs will come out furious after an embarrassing loss. But at a 15-point spread, I still see value on the Dons to keep it respectable.
San Francisco is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) over their last seven and is a balanced team, with the 36th-best adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th-ranked defensive efficiency. They're just 12-18-1 ATS on the year, but with an opportunity to take down Goliath I think they'll be focused and ready.
The Bulldogs have stumbled a bit after a torrid campaign. They're only 1-3-1 ATS over their last five and have really struggled with offensive rebounding and free throws, ranking in the 36th percentile in offensive boards and 4th in free throw attempt rate in that stretch. Gonzaga has still been beating teams aside from Saint Mary's, but the warts are concerning enough to see value with the Dons.
When these teams played two weeks ago, San Francisco was a 10.5-point underdog. They lost by 16, but I don't think the line should be up to 15 so quickly. The Dons are in the 93rd percentile in effective field goal percentage over their last five and have been brilliant at preventing turnovers. As long as they keep calm, they should do enough to stay within the number with their season potentially on the line.
Pick: San Francisco +15 (-110)
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