Betsided

San Francisco vs. Murray State Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Murray State's DaQuan Smith (1), from left, Nicholas McMullen (32) and Carter Collins (13) cheer
Murray State's DaQuan Smith (1), from left, Nicholas McMullen (32) and Carter Collins (13) cheer / GRACE PRITCHETT / COURIER & PRESS /
facebooktwitterreddit

Two of the mid-major darlings of this college basketball season meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

No. 7 seed Murray State is set to face No. 10 San Francisco in the first round of the East Region of the NCAA Tournament. Both teams look like trendy dark horse picks to make a run in March Madness, but one will be going home in the Round of 64.

Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, a statistical breakdown and best bets for the 7-10 matchup:

San Francisco vs. Murray State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • San Francisco: -1.5 (-110)
  • Murray State: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • San Francisco: -125
  • Murray State: +105

Total: 138.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

San Francisco vs. Murray State Analysis

San Francisco

  • Overall Record: 24-9
  • ATS Record:13-18-1
  • Over/Under Record: 16-16
  • SoS: 68th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.7
  • Defensive Efficiency: 92.4
  • eFG%: 53.1%
  • FT%: 69.2%
  • 3PT%: 34.7%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Murray State

  • ATS Record:16-12-1
  • Over/Under Record: 12-17
  • SoS: 145th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 111.5
  • Defensive Efficiency: 95.1
  • eFG%: 52.9%
  • FT%: 69.8%
  • 3PT%: 34.7%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

San Francisco vs. Murray State Prediction and Pick

The Dons are the lower seed but favored ever so slightly over the Racers. While I do think there isn't much separating these two teams, I lean towards Murray State winning this one.

The team is built to disrupt USF's ball handlers in Khalil Shabazz and Jamaree Bouyea but also keep them out of the paint, where they do their most damage.

The Dons are top 40 in the country in two point percentage despite taking a ton of 3s. Their best offense is to feed Yauhen Massalski and have him cook down low, opening up the perimeter for their shooters. However, 6'10" Racers big KJ Williams matches up well and the MSU defense funnels teams outside the paint while also avoiding fouling (bottom 60 in the country in percentage allowed from the free throw line) and limiting second chance opportunities (top 100).

I see too many answers with Williams and the Racers not to play what I think is the best mid-major team outside of Gonzaga this season.

LEAN: Murray State +105

Follow BetSided's March Madness Hub throughout the entirety of the NCAA men's and women's tournaments for full betting previews and picks for every game,updated betting odds, futures for the Final Four and national championship, insights, trends, videos, podcasts and more!


You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks