Santa Clara vs. St. Mary's Prediction, Odds and Key Players for West Coast Conference Semifinal

St. Mary’s will look to continue its path to a WCC Tournament after winning the regular season title with a semifinals matchup against Santa Clara. 

The Gaels are primed for an NCAA Tournament berth, but will try bolster its standing in the eyes of the Selection Committee with a WCC title. Can St. Mary’s continue its dream season with a semifinals victory – and cover – against Santa Clara?

Here’s our betting preview for the semifinal matchup on Monday night:

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Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Santa Clara: +10.5
• St. Mary's: -10.5

Moneyline

• Santa Clara: +450
• St. Mary's: -600

Total

• 134.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

St. Mary’s vs. Santa Clara State Betting Trends

• Santa Clara is 19-11-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Santa Clara is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 games
• Santa Clara has gone UNDER in 18 of 22 games this season
• St. Maru’s has gone OVER in 15 of 27 games as a favorite

Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s  How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Match 11
• Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
• Venue: Orleans Arena
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Santa Clara: 20-12
• St. Mary’s Record: 24-7

Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s  Key Players to Watch

Santa Clara

Adama Bal: Despite missing time in conference play, Bal played in both games against St. Mary’s as he is one of the lone wings that can attack the proficient drop coverage that St. Mary’s likes to play. Bal is off a 24-point outing against San Diego, but most of his damage came from the free throw line (11-of-15) and St. Mary’s has one of the lowest free throw rates in the country. 

St. Mary’s

Aiden Mahaney: As the team awaits the return of Joshua Jefferson, more pressure will fall on Mahaney, who has been lights out in WCC play, shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc. The Gaels guard is elite at putting pressure on the rim and opening up clean shots for the rest of the St. Mary’s offense. 

Santa Clara vs. St. Mary’s State Prediction and Pick

Santa Clara covered in the second meeting at St. Mary’s after losing the first by 24 points at home. However, that box score is a bit fraudulent as the Broncos trailed by 22 midway through the second half before a late flurry made the final score look more reasonable, a five point St. Mary’s win. 

While the Gaels may be without its best wing defender in Jefferson, I can’t trust Santa Clara to hold up on offense. The team struggles to get to the rim, and the Gaels shut down the interior completely. St. Mary’s is 25th in mid-range shot field goal percentage allowed, per Haslametrics while also allowing a top 30 average shot distance. 

Santa Clara is second in 3-point rate in conference play, but the team is eighth in 3-point percentage, a bad mix for this elite defense. 

While Jefferson’s absence may be more notable against an elite dribble drive offense, the Broncos are not the team to exploit this hole in the roster. 

Meanwhile, St. Mary’s elite rim running offense, 50th in average shot proximity, can cook a slow footed Santa Clara perimeter defense that is 245th in points allowed at the rim this season, per ShotQuality.

I’ll lay it with the Gaels in the WCC semifinals.

PICK: Saint Mary's -10.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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