Scottish Open Best Bets (Outright, Top 10 and Top 20 Picks at The Renaissance Club)

Capping the PGA Tour and professional golf is always a grind. You have to celebrate any time you hit an outright winner, especially with long odds.

If you followed my picks for the John Deere Classic last week, you were in celebration on Sunday afternoon. Davis Thompson was a run-away winner by four shots as he put together an incredible -28 in four days of excellent ball striking.

The focus at TPC Deere Run was strokes gained from tee to green, and that is one of the reasons we loved Thompson.

Now, we focus on the esteemed Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland, the host of the 2024 Scottish Open. This is the only co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour, and with 2024's fourth major just a week away, the Scottish Open boasts an incredible field.

Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy have each won the Scottish Open over the past two years. As with all links courses, the Renaissance Club's character is heavily influenced by wind conditions. This week's weather calls for calmer wind conditions, but there is a chance of rain throughout the four-day tournament. Sunday's final round looks to have the best conditions, so hopefully, we will have an exciting leaderboard.

Although the Tom Doak-designed course doesn’t have the centuries-old history of other Scottish venues, it has proven to be an excellent site for tournament golf.

This year, Schauffele and McIlroy return as former champions, joined by a strong field that includes Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth.

Strong Recent Form has Reigned Supreme at the Scottish Open

Brandon Stone's victory at Gullane in 2018 is the lone outlier of recent winners at the Scottish Open regarding the trend of winners who came into the Scottish Open in great form. The South African had failed to crack the top 60 in his previous seven starts, making his massive +40000 odds a rewarding surprise for those who overlooked his recent form.

Xander Schauffele, the 2022 winner, arrived in Scotland hot off a victory at the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour. Last year's champion, Rory McIlroy, came into the event with five consecutive top-10 finishes, including a 2nd place at the US Open. They sit atop as the favorites, with McIlroy coming in at +750 and Schauffele coming in just behind at +850.

But it will be a layoff of the top favorites this week. While I fully believe Schauffele can run away at Renaissance, I will lay off and hope we catch lighting with something a bit longer. I may look at him for a hedge play as the weekend progresses against opening-round plays.

As for Rory, it's a coin flip as to which Rory we'll see this weekend as he defends his Scottish Open title. He's fresh off a lengthy lay-off following his disastrous late collapse to lose the US Open to Bryson DeChambeau.

I believe the Open Championship and another shot at a major will sit at the forefront of McIlroy's mind. Will he come back as a man on a mission? Or will the distraction of the US Open results and the looming Open Championship steer McIlroy clear of glory this weekend? I'd rather place my money elsewhere.

Let's look at this week's card, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Scottish Open Best Bets

• Ludvig Åberg - Outright Winner +1600 | Top 10 +175

• Min Woo Lee - Outright Winner +2800 | Top 10 +280

• Tom Kim - Outright Winner +3000 | Top 20 +140

• Matthieu Pavon - Outright Winner +9000 | Top 20 +300

• Alexander Björk Top 40 +200

Breaking Down Scottish Open Best Bets

Ludvig Åberg - Outright Winner +1600 | Top 10 +175

Unlike the rest of our plays, Ludvig Åberg does not have an excellent history at The Renaissance Club. Åberg got his first experience at The Renaissance Club last year, where he missed the cut on the cutline number. When McIlroy won this tournament in 2023, it was Åberg who dominated with 5.615 Strokes Gained Off the Tee (first in the field), 5.532 Strokes Gained Approach to Green (seventh), and 1.5 Strokes Gained Putting (34th). So, he has shown the ability to score here.

Åberg has been impressive with his Strokes Gained Off the Tee all season long, averaging 0.532, which ranks 14th on Tour this season. His average driving distance of 308.0 yards places him 24th, while his driving accuracy of 68.4% ranks 26th. With calmer winds expected this week, Åberg's ability to drive the ball accurately and with power will pay huge dividends.

Åberg's consistency is perhaps his most impressive trait. He has not gone three consecutive events this season without a top-10 finish. His recent performances include a tie for 12th at the U.S. Open and a tie for 27th at the Travelers Championship.

And all indications suggest we're just waiting for Åberg to be the next young major winner. I think he could get his preparation for the Open Championship started early, this weekend.

Min Woo Lee - Outright Winner +2800 | Top 10 +280

Having won a playoff against Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry at The Renaissance Club in 2021, Lee is fully capable of another strong performance at The Scottish Open. He has finished in the top 35 at this venue twice, aside from his 2021 victory.

Given that Lee's winning score of 18-under in the 2021 playoff might be close to the mark again this week, it bodes well for the Australian. All three of his DP World Tour titles have been achieved with scores in the 18- to 20-under range, making him a strong contender.

He recently finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and was also runner-up earlier this season at PGA National. The 25-year-old secured his latest win in November at Royal Queensland Golf Club. With three victories to his name, he has demonstrated a clear aptitude for exposed, links-style courses.

His first major triumph came at the Vic Open at 13th Beach in 2020, showcasing his skill in these challenging conditions.

Given his current form and his ability to navigate links style courses, he is an excellent darkhouse this weekend at The Renaissance Club.

Tom Kim - Outright Winner +3000 | Top 20 +140

Tom Kim, who also finished 47th at the 2022 Open at St Andrews, first announced himself to the wider golfing public at this very course two years ago. Kim made an impressive debut at the Renaissance Club in 2022, finishing third, and followed it up with a sixth-place finish last year after entering the final round in second place.

Kim has developed a deep appreciation for links golf at the Renaissance Club and is undoubtedly eager to turn that affection into a victory this week.

His current form is also noteworthy, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at the Canadian Open and a second-place finish at the Travelers Championship, where it took a playoff against the world's best player to defeat him.

Kim ranked first in Strokes Gained Tee to Green at the Travelers. He also topped the rankings for Greens in Regulation and Scrambling in the same event. As we've seen, Kim's relative lack of length off the tee doesn't hinder him on this course, and he is well-positioned to secure what would be his fourth PGA Tour win at just 22 years old.

I believe Kim learned a lot from his playoff defeat to Scottie Scheffler, and I like Kim to be in contention come Sunday afternoon.

Matthieu Pavon - Outright Winner +9000 | Top 20 +300

Matthieu Pavon continues to make his case to win the 2024 Arnold Palmer Rookie of the Year Award on the PGA Tour. After a late-season surge that included a breakthrough victory on the DP World Tour last October, he has continued his impressive run with another win at the Farmers Insurance Open and five top-10 finishes worldwide, the most recent being a solo fifth at the U.S. Open.

His T12 finish at the Masters was shocking for someone making their debut at Augusta National.

Leading the circuit in average distance of putts converted per round, his performance defies expectations given his relative inexperience. He's no stranger to The Renaissance Club, where his best finish was a T12 in 2021.

Although his victory at the Spanish Open in October on the DP World Tour might have seemed like a one-off, his subsequent success, including a third-place finish at Pebble Beach in a weather-shortened event, indicates his consistency and ability to score at a links-style course in challenging weather.

In 2018, Pavon finished 10th at Ballyliffin in the Irish Open after leading at the halfway mark and followed it with a third-place finish at Dundonald Links in the same event the previous year. His sixth-place finish at last year's Alfred Dunhill Links, a 54-hole event, and a T12 at the Renaissance in 2021 amidst a series of missed cuts show how comfortable he is playing in this part of the world. Pavon could be lurking within striking distance come Sunday.

Alexander Björk Top 40 +200

This is a bit of an odd play but is based solely on past performances at the Scottish Open and on the value. Since 2019, Alexander Björk has made five starts in the Scottish open, and he's finished in the top 40 in three of them. 35th (2023), 42nd (2022), 26th (2021), 19th (2020) and 62nd (2019).

Björk has also consistently performed well at The Renaissance Club, finishing in the top 42 in each of the past four seasons. He knows this course exceptionally well, and at +200 to make the top 40, this is a play I just had to make.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.