Scottish Open Score Predictions (What Will be the Winning Score at Renaissance Club?)

The Scottish Open has become one of the toughest events to predict since moving to the Renaissance Club.
Jun 25, 2023; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Rory McIlroy looks over his putt on the 14th green during
Jun 25, 2023; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Rory McIlroy looks over his putt on the 14th green during / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Scottish Open is in its second year since becoming an officially co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. Plenty of the top golfers in the world will tee it up at Renaissance Golf Club as a final warm up before next week's Open Championship.

You can find my full betting preview and picks for the tournament here.

In this article, I'm going to do my best to predict the winning score, as well as what each of the top 10 golfers on the odds list will finish with. Let's dive into it.

Scottish Open Score Predictions

Winning score: -13

Of all professional golf tournaments that are hosted at the same course for several years, the Scottish Open might be the most difficult to predict the winning score at. It's been at the Renaissance Club for four straight years, but there has been a wildly different score all four times.

Xander Schauffele won it last year at 7-under par, while Bernd Wiesberger won it at 22-under par in 2019. Sandwiched in between was a winning score of 11-under par by Aaron Rai and a winning score of 18-under poar by Min Woo Lee.

The weather plays a massive factor in the winning score. If we get good weather, it'll be a double-digit victory. If we get wind and rain like we did last year, we're going to see a single-digit under par score end up being good enough.

As of writing this article, it looks like we're certainly going to get some wind throughout the event, but not to the level of what we got last year. So, I settled on 13-under par as the winning score.

Scottie Scheffler score prediction: -13

Scottie Scheffler is my pick to win this week, so I have him finishing with a final score of 13-under par. He has been on an absolute tear this season, despite not racking up the wins. He hasn't finished worse than T12 in 18 (!!) straight starts. The last time he finished outside the top 12 was at the CJ Cup last October.

It's about time he grabs another win.

Rory McIlroy score prediction: -10

Rory McIlroy has been in great form lately, but there's a great chance he ends up doing what he does, which is be somewhat competitive all weak and finish somewhere around the top 10. He's likely much more focused on next week's Open.

Patrick Cantlay score prediction: -8

I'm not a Patrick Cantlay guy and but he continues to get respect from oddsmakers despite not doing anything impressive this season. He did finish fourth at this event last year, but I'm willing to bet he's going to have another Cantlay-esque finish.

Xander Schauffele score prediction: -9

Xander is the defending champion of the event, but his disappointing performance as the defending champion at the Travelers Championship a few weeks ago makes me think we're going to see a new champion at the Scottish Open.

Rickie Fowler score prediction: -6

Rickie Fowler finally got the monkey off his back by winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but after that might lead to a bit of an emotional hangover at the Scottish Open. I don't expect much from him, especially since he finished 47th here last season.

Tyrrell Hatton score prediction: -12

Tyrrell Hatton ranks third in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour this season, behind only Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Now that he's back on European soil, I expect him to compete well this week. But, at the end of the day, he's going to fall just short on Sunday.

Viktor Hovland score prediction: -5

Viktor Hovland's game has regressed since winning The Memorial Tournament. Maybe he'll look fresh after a few weeks off from competing, but his missed cut at the Scottish Open last season makes me nervous that he's going to have a completely average tournament.

Jordan Spieth score prediction: Missed Cut

Jordan Spieth is either in contention and finishes in the top 10, or he completely misses the cut. He has missed the cut in two of the last three tournaments he has competed in, so I don't think his game is dialed in heading into the European swing of the calendar.

Matt Fitzpatrick score prediction: -3

Matt Fitzpatrick has finished sixth and second in the two prior editions of the Scottish Open, but his iron game has been bad all season. He'll make the cut but then fall apart over the weekend.

Tommy Fleetwood score prediction: -7

Tommy Fleetwood can't seem to win on American soil, so can he pull it off now that's back on Europe? Meh, I don't think so. He'll have a respectable finish, but won't be a serious contender.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.