Seahawks vs. Chargers Prediction: Brandon Staley's Defense is a Fraud and Seattle Wins Ouright
By Josh Yourish
The Los Angeles Chargers are at home on a short week after an ugly 19-16 win over the Broncos on Monday Night Football. LA is 4-2 and the Seattle Seahawks are 3-3 after an equally ugly win over Arizona, 19-9. The Chargers look to keep pace with the Chiefs in the AFC West and the Seahawks are somehow in a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Rams and 49ers.
Maybe Seattle and Geno Smith can keep surprising everyone with another big win. Let’s check the odds and see what the sportsbooks think of this one.
Seahawks vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total
Seahawks vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total Movement
This game opened with LA as 8.5 point favorites and has quickly moved down to 5 or 5.5 point favorites. The over/under has also come down from 53.5 to 50 in a short time.
Seahawks vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick
Let’s play a game called “Who’s More Aggressive?” our two contestants today are Geno Smith and Pete Carroll, the career backup QB and the 71-year-old. Against Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley, the man with the rocket arm and the analytics apostle.
The quarterback behind Door A has an average depth of target (ADOT) of 6.8 yards and according to PFF has made seven big time throws this year. He also has thrown the ball away 11 times. Door B has an ADOT of 8.8, has 11 big time throws and has only thrown the ball away six times in six games.
You guessed it, Door A is Justin Herbert and Door B is Geno Smith. The Seahawks were clearly doing a good job of protecting Russell Wilson from himself and now they’re letting Geno cook. He is completing 73.4% of his passes, has nine touchdowns to two picks and is routinely pushing the ball downfield. Herbert on the other hand has become check-down Charlie and the Chargers offense is worse for it. I’m sure his rib injury has something to do with it, but Joe Lombardi, their OC needs to have Herbert take more shots if this offense is going to score more than 23.5 points per game.
I like the Seahawks offense more in this game, they score 24.3 points per game. The defense concerns me on both sides, because neither team can stop the run. The Seahawks give up 5.1 yards per carry and the Chargers 5.6.
Frankly, I’m not sure what Brandon Staley is good at as a head coach, he makes ridiculous fourth down decisions, he hasn’t unlocked his unbelievably talented quarterback and the “Brandon Staley defense” is taking over the NFL but he’s the worst one at it. Both teams will be able to move the ball on the ground and the Seahawks are more likely to hit an explosive play downfield with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. I'll take Seattle to win outright.
Pick: Seahawks +210
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change