Sentry Tournament of Champions Prediction and Betting Preview
The first golf event of the 2021 PGA Tour calendar year is here, the Sentry Tournament of Champions!
The golf world's offseason, which happens to occur three months into the actual season, has come to a close and now we have 11.5 months ahead of us with a golf event scheduled for every single weekend. How exciting!
If you don't already know, each calendar year gets kicked off with the Tournament of Champions, which is a small-field event in which you can only receive an invite if you won a PGA Tour event in the previous year. That means all winners from the 2021 Tournament of Champions to now, have a chance to compete this week. It's an interesting mix of the top players in the world, as well as first-time winners and other names who happened to pop-off for a weekend at some point in the past 12 months.
Let's look at the Top 10 names on the odds list at WynnBET to win the event.
Odds to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
- John Rahm +850
- Justin Thomas +850
- Collin Morikawa +1000
- Bryson DeChambeau +1200
- Viktor Hovland +1200
- Xander Schauffele +1200
- Patrick Cantlay +1600
- Sam Burns +1600
- Hideki Matsuyama +2000
- Jordan Spieth +2000
How to Handicap the Plantation Course at Kapalua
The Sentry Tournament of Champions has taken place at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Hawaii since 1999, so we have a ton of data and past events to study when handicapping the event.
The course fits a variety of play styles with its wide fairways and constant elevation changes. The leaderboard often displays a variety of skillsets, but one thing we know for certain is that we don't have to worry about accuracy off the tee. The extra-wide fairways will allow even the least accurate of drivers to set themselves up for favorable second shots on most holes.
Let's focus on long hitters, good ball strikers, and solid scramblers this week.
Five Key Stats for the Sentry Tournament of Champions
- Driving Distance
- Ball Striking
- Strokes gained: approach the green
- Strokes gained: around-the-green
- Strokes gained: putting
Picks to Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions
John Rahm +850 (1 unit)
I normally hate taking the betting favorites in golf tournaments, but small-field events such as this are exceptions to the rule. Rahm, who is the number one ranked golfer in the world, is still somehow underrated in my opinion. He led the PGA Tour in total strokes gained per round last year (+2.098) and it wasn't particularly close, with Bryson DeChambeau coming in second at +1.823.
Rahm has virtually no holes in his game, which gives him an advantage over someone like Collin Morikawa who has been known to get cold with his putting at times. He's finished in the top 10 in all four of his starts at this event, with his best finish being a solo second in 2019.
Sam Burns +1600 (0.5 unit)
It's tough to cite recent form when handicapping this event, considering there hasn't been an event for a handful of weeks and most golfers haven't competed for over a month, but if you were to consider it you'd have to bring up Sam Burns.
He was a breakout star in 2021, and he already has a win under his belt in the 2022 season, winning the Sanderson Farms Championship at the beginning of October. He ranks 5th on the Tour in total strokes gained so far this season, and he's a birdie machine. The wide fairways will let him attack the course this week, which should do nothing but benefit his game.
Tony Finau +2500 (0.5 unit)
Tony Finau finally broke his winless drought at the Northern Trust in last season's playoffs, so does that mean we can start betting on him to win tournaments again? I'm not sure of the answer to that question yet, but I'm going to take a shot at him this week because I feel his odds are mis-priced.
His driving accuracy has been his downfall at times in the past, but Kapalua's wide fairways will give him the confidence to hit bombs off the tee without worrying about putting himself in bad spots. I think he's worth a shot at +2500.