Should You Bet Bucks or Sixers to Win Series Based on This Historic Trend?
By Reed Wallach
No team in NBA Playoff history has come back from down 3-0, but a handful have battled back from down 3-1, and we have some history potentially brewing in the first round.
The Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks each extended its seasons on Tuesday night in Game 5 while trailing 3-1, setting up pivotal Game 6's on Thursday. For the Sixers, the team will return home in hopes of evening the series up at three games a piece while the Bucks will look to win on the road, setting up a Saturday Game 7 back in Milwaukee.
History isn't on the side of the team down 3-1, only 13 teams have erased a 3-1 series deficit in 282 instances, per Land of Basketball, which translates to about a 4%. The last team to do this was the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, who won the NBA title by rallying to beat the beat the Golden State Warriors.
Of course, each situation is unique, and these two are no different.
Philadelphia was lined as a near pick 'em in its series against the Knicks, as the team has last year's league MVP Joel Embiid returning from mid-season knee surgery to try to lift the team through the postseason against the Knicks. Ironically, it was Embiid's co-star, Tyrese Maxey, that saved the team in Game 5, scoring seven points in the final 26 seconds to tie the game and force overtime.
For what it's worth, the Sixers are +2 through five games in this series despite trailing 3-2.
The 76ers are a modest home favorite in Game 6 and are +290 to complete the surprise comeback and advance to the second round.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are in an intriguing situation, as the team has been playing this entire series against the Pacers short-handed, awaiting the return of its best player Giannis Antetokounmpo from a calf strain. The Pacers, despite not having home court, began the series as favorites, and built a 3-1 series lead with the Bucks second best player, Damian Lillard, also going down with an injury.
However, Milwaukee rallied around its supporting cast, playing without Lillard for the second straight game, and beat the Pacers by double digits, leading to the possibility that one, if not both, of Antetokounmpo and Lillard will be available moving forward.
Currently, the Bucks are +570 to win the series and massive underdogs in Game 6, as its up in the air for the two to be available in Game 6, but the momentum is building for Milwaukee to make a run at a historic comeback.
For now, here are the updated odds for each team to comeback.
76ers vs. Knicks Series Odds
Pacers vs. Bucks Series Odds
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.