SMU vs. Houston Prediction and Odds (Back Cougars in Revenge Game at Home)
By Ben Heisler
The American Athletic Conference is up for grabs Sunday afternoon when the SMU Mustangs head to in-state rival Houston for a matinee showdown against the Cougars.
Houston holds a one-game lead in the conference, and must win today to hang on to the top spot. SMU defeated Houston 85-83 back in Dallas on February 9th in their home building as the Mustangs rallied from 15 points down in the second half.
If Houston should exact revenge, will they be able to do cover the double digit spread in the process? Let's dive into the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.
SMU vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total
Spread:
- SMU +11 (-110)
- Houston -11 (-110)
Moneyline:
- SMU +450
- Houston -600
Total:
- 136.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
SMU vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
My initial lean was on the under, given the wide discrepancy from how Game 1 played out. The total is set at 136.5, a stark contrast from the 168 points scored in their previous matchup, leading me to trust the oddsmakers on their projection and for Houston to control the pace much better at home.
However, with the line already moving a full point from the opening number of Houston -10, I'm more tempted to back the big home favorite today.
The Cougars were cruising in their previous matchup but got sloppy down the stretch, blowing a 15-point lead on the road. Their win probability with just over 10 minutes to go was 98.1% before giving up separate 12-1 and 12-2 runs.
Houston seems to have righted the ship from their two-game losing streak, sandwiching a double-overtime road win vs. Wichita State in between two blowouts vs. UCF and Tulane. I expect their top-5 defense to return against a good SMU team that stunned the Cougars in their last time out. They won't get caught with their pants down again today.
LEAN: Houston -11 (-110)
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