SMU vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, November 30 (Mustangs Can Run with Aggies on the Road)
By Ben Heisler
The Texas A&M Aggies look to remain undefeated at Reed Arena when they host the SMU Mustangs tonight in College Station.
After starting the season 1-2 with losses to No. 24 Dayton and New Mexico, the Mustangs have showed up their defense, allowing less than 50 points in two of their last three games, with the only eception being a 76-72 overtime loss vs. Louisiana.
As for A&M, after giving up 103 points to the Colorado Buffaloes at home, they've bounced back with double digit victories vs. Loyola Chicago and on the road at DePaul. Tyrece Radford dropped 31 points in their road win, as the senior went way past his average of 12.3 points per game.
Here's how the oddsmakers have tonight's matchup set up:
SMU vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total
SMU vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
A&M is the far superior team based off the metrics, but I don't know if they deserve to be favorites by this many points.
The Aggies are top 60 in adjusted defense, and 43rd in adjusted offense, but while they own a major advantage over the Mustangs offensively (60 vs. 211th in the country), the Mustangs have been very solid defensively this year and rank in the top 100. They've limited teams in effective field goal percentage at just 43.4%, forcing their opponents to take tougher, less efficient shots in their matchups this year. They've also held teams to 27.6% from 3-point range, and 44.5% from inside the arc.
A&M's strength defensively in in turnover percentage, ranking 18th in the country in that stat, as well as 24th in steals. However, on the offensive end, SMU doesn't turn the ball over or make bad passes, rather it's just their ability to consistently hit open shots.
The Mustangs may not hit the broad side of a barn in this game, but they'll play solid defense and won't give easy chances to the Aggies in transition. Because of that, I'll say they keep it under 12.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.