SMU vs. Tulane Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 12 (Green Wave Undervalued)

Nov 12, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) passes
Nov 12, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt (7) passes / Rebecca Warren-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane lost its first AAC game of the season on Saturday to UCF, a potential AAC Championship preview, but there is still plenty for this team to accomplish including a possible New Year's Six Bowl bid.

The Green Wave have a quick turn around after the UCF, hosting SMU on Thursday, who has been cooking on offense of late, scoring 163 over the last three games behind their high powered offense. Can Tulane's typically stout defense get back on track on Thursday night at home? The team is tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC ahead of a meeting with the Bearcats next weekend, so this is a must win situation, can it take care of business?

Here are the odds for this pivotal AAC showdown:

SMU vs. Tulane Odds, Spread and Total

SMU vs. Tulane Betting Trends

  • Tulane is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • SMU is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season
  • SMU has gone UNDER in three of four games as an underdog
  • SMU has lost all four games outright as an underdog

SMU vs. Tulane Prediction and Pick

Tulane came up short against UCF, but I think that this matchup should suit the Green Wave much better as SMU's defense is far inferior. Tulane's offense is above average, capable both through the air and on the ground, inside the top 50 in success rate and averaging nearly three points pre drive including a top 40 red zone touchdown percentage.

The Green Wave fell behind early, 24-7, but had the game within one score in a near-pick 'em game. The SMU defense is a far cry from the UCF unit, 107th in yards per play allowed, 112th in rush yards allowed, otuside the top 100 in explosive run and pass rate and are allowing touchdowns on 75% of red zone drives (119th nationally).

This is a putrid SMU defense that hasn't been able to stop any team and Tulane's offense should find success at all times. Meanwhile, the Green Wave defense will have the tough task of slowing down a rolling Mustangs offense, however I think they are more likely to do so than the other way around.

While I faded Tulane last week because I trusted the UCF defense more, this is a different matchup and the line is undervaluing the Green Wave defense that is still elite for AAC defense. The unit is elite at slowing down big plays, top 25 against both explosive run and pass and is top 20 in points allowed per drive. The secondary is the strong point of the group, which will be key against an SMU offense that is pass heavy, top 20 in pass rate, but SMU is 56th in success rate against the pass.

Also, I mentioned SMU's offense figuring it out, but what if that is also fortutious scheduling? The team has faced three defenses outside of the top 100 in Bill Connely's SP+ rankings while Tulane ranks 30th.

The Green Wave match up nicely here and I think they get back on track and push towards a AAC Championship berth with a convincing win at home on Thursday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.