SMU vs. UCF Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 6

Sep 9, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10) hands off to UCF
Sep 9, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee (10) hands off to UCF / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

We have some Wednesday night college football!

After Hurricane Ian pushed back the start of UCF-SMU in a massive AAC showdown, the two teams opted to push it to the middle of the week considering both had a bye week in Week 5. This game will help sort out the conference title picture with a pair of explosive offenses taking the field on Wednesday.

Here are the odds for this rare standalone AAC matchup:

SMU vs. UCF Odds, Spread and Total

SMU vs. UCF Betting Trends

  • SMU is 1-3 against the spread (ATS) and 0-2 as an underdog
  • UCF is 2-2 ATS this season
  • Both teams are 1-3 to the OVER this season

SMU vs. UCF Prediction and Pick

There was a ton of intrigue around this game when it was on Saturday and now there is even more now that it's in primetime on a Wednesday. Both offenses have explosive weapons at their disposal, but UCF bolsters the far better defense that is 21st in success rate.

The Mustangs have been able to outpace opposing offenses with a dynamic offense led by former Oklahoma backup Tanner Mordecai. The team is 33rd in yards per play and top 10 nationally in explosive pass rate.

It was reported earlier this week that several SMU players are sitting out the rest of the season as they want to keep their eligibility so they can transfer.

The players listed in the report, Roderick Daniels and Chance Cromartie have both played less than 100 snaps this season, but this could be the start of a trend around first year head coach Rhett Lashley.

UCF is a rush first offense around Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee, running at a top 15 rate and posting the 25th highest EPA/Play on the ground. That's pivotal against SMU's porous run defense that is outside the top 100 defending the run on an EPA/Play basis.

I give the edge to UCF at home to get a leg up on their AAC foes.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.