Sony Open Picks and Predictions (How to Bet Golfers at Waialae Country Club)
By Todd Moser
This week, the PGA Tour stays in the Aloha State as the action shifts to the familiar Waialae Country Club (CC) for the Sony Open. I say familiar because this event has been held at Waialae CC for the last 58 years.
Before we get into this week’s picks, let’s take a quick look at last week’s results. Unfortunately, our guys in the hunt could not break through on the weekend. Out of our seven outright selections, only Scottie Scheffler and Colin Morikawa could break the top five.
Remember, the methodology relies upon current form, horses for courses, home course or home location advantage, local ties, etc., and current odds.
This early in the season, there isn’t a lot of current form data with only one event played with a limited field, but eight of the last 10 winners have played the opening event so a lot of weight is being placed on that.
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Sony Open Picks and Predictions
Brian Harman (+2000)
Form: Last week, Harman played well finishing tied for 5th.
Horse for course: Previous best finish at the Sony was a Tied for 4th. Waialae is a short course favoring accuracy over length. Its greens are Bermuda which favors the East Coasters. Harman is a Georgia alum and now lives in Florida, home of Bermuda greens. Last year, he finished 27th in strokes gained putting and 16th in driving accuracy.
Russell Henley (+2200)
Form: Last week, Henley only managed a T-52 out of 59 players.
Horse for course: Henley fits the Waialae mold. He’s another Georgia alum and is as straight off the tee as they come. Last year he was first in driving accuracy, second in approach distance to the hole, and seventh in putting distance from 10 to 15 feet. In 2022, he lost in a playoff to Hideki Matsuyama and had a T-11 in 2021.
Corey Conners (+2500)
Form: Last week, Conners was mid-pack at tied-33rd.
Horse for course: Conners is hardly an East Coaster being from Ontario, Canada, but is one of the tour’s best ball strikers. Last year he was 19th in greens in regulation and 11th in strokes gained off the tee. He has had frequent success at Waialae. He has four top 15s including a top three.
Byeong Hun (Ben) An (+3300)
Form: Last week, An was in a tie for the lead before finishing solo fourth so he’s off to a good start.
Horse for course: His game has really turned around since he changed putters last year picking up two top three finishes toward the latter part of the season. He finished- fourth in putting average and fourth in putts per round last year. He finished 23rd in strokes gained off the tee and sixth in strokes gained around the green. Ben finished t12 in last year’s Sony.
Brendon Todd (+4500)
Form: Last week, Todd flirted with the lead until he broke his driver in anger and settled for a tied for 33rd.
Horse for course: Todd is known for his driving accuracy {he is currently seventh) and was ninth last year. He also was in the top 25 in several putting categories. That bodes well for the tight Waialae fairways and Bermuda greens. He has three top 25 finishes at the Sony in the last four years.
Matt Kuchar (+5000)
Form: Kuch is getting up there in years. He’s 45 now but can still compete with the young guys. Last week he did not play.
Horse for course: Kuch might be best known at the Sony for giving his fill-in caddy the minimum 10% after he won in 2019. He has tied for seventh the past two years as well. His stats aren’t flashy. He’s a top 40 putter, but a top two scrambler including a first in sand saves.
Hideki Matsuyama (+5000)
Form: Last week, Hideki got off to an auspicious debut finishing 58th out of 59 players at the Sentry.
Horse for course: “Deki” has had success at the Sony. He has a win in 2019, a T-12, and a T-19. Statistically, he had five top five finishes in various approach categories from under 125 yards. He finished 12th tee to green. If he can get his putter working, he should contend this week.
Hayden Buckley (+15000)
Form: Hayden who? I admit it. This is a hunch pick. Each week, I’ll take a shot at a long shot like Buckley. He has not had much success with only two top five finishes, the last of which came way back in April 2022.
Horse for course: Surprisingly, Hayden has had two top 15 finishes the past two years including a tie for second last year. Buckley finished eighth in driving and had three top 25 placements in various putting distance categories.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.