South Dakota vs. Air Force Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, December 6 (Don't Trust Slow Offenses)
By Peter Dewey
Two 5-4 teams face off in a standalone game in college basketball on Tuesday, with the Air Force Falcons hosting the South Dakota Coyotes at 5 p.m. EST.
Air Force had a four-game winning streak snapped in its last game against Portland State, but Joe Scott’s team has taken care of business at home this season, going 5-2 straight up.
The Coyotes are fresh off a win against BYU, but they have been blown out on several occasions against superior opponents (Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Sam Houston State) so far this season.
Led by senior guards A.J. Plitzuweit and Kruz Perrott-Hunt, the Coyotes are aiming to win their third straight game on Tuesday.
Here’s a look at the odds for this matchup:
South Dakota vs. Air Force Odds, Spread and Total
South Dakota vs. Air Force Prediction and Pick
I don’t have a ton of interest in backing either team to win, as they are both outside the top-200 in KenPom’s latest rankings.
However, I do think there is value on the total, especially because these teams play at extremely slow paces this season.
Air Force ranks 348th in the country in adjusted tempo, while the Coyotes aren’t much faster, playing at the 279th adjusted tempo.
Looking at the Falcons’ games this season, you’ll notice that they’ve scored more than 71 points just twice, against KenPom’s No. 354 and No. 303 teams (Arkansas Pine Bluff and USC Upstate).
Air Force ranks just 297th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, although it is a top-50 team in effective field goal percentage. Still, the Coyotes aren’t a great offense, ranking 318th in effective field goal percentage and 287th in turnover percentage.
With both teams more likely to slow this game, I don’t think we see enough good possessions for this game to go OVER, even at a relatively low total.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.