South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 12

Sep 2, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) looks for an open
Sep 2, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris (0) looks for an open / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Even in its first year in the AAC, UTSA is contending for another championship.

After winning the last two Conference USA titles before bolting for the AAC, UTSA is firmly in the mix for another conference crown behind the excellence of Frank Harris. The Roadrunners are undefeated in conference play and two wins away from playing for more hardware as the team welcomes South Florida to the Alamodome.

The Bulls have been playing at a frenetic tempo with an aggressive defense, but that has left the team vulnerable to getting gashed by high-powered offenses. Will that happen against UTSA or can the team hang around catching over two touchdowns?

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South Florida vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total

South Florida vs. UTSA Betting Trends

  • South Florida is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
  • UTSA is 4-1-1 ATS in AAC play
  • UTSA has gone UNDER in seven of 10 games
  • South Florida has gone OVER in three of five games as an underdog

South Florida vs. UTSA How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, November 17th
  • Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Alamodome
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • South Florida Record: 5-5
  • UTSA Record: 7-3

South Florida vs. UTSA Key Players to Watch

South Florida

Byrum Brown: The Bulls play at a fast tempo and Brown does a ton of the heavy lifting, throwing 330 passes on the year and running the ball 131 times. Overall, he has compiled over 3,300 yards with 27 total touchdowns (with 13 turnovers). Still raw, Brown is more than capable of making big plays as he has the Bulls one win away from bowl eligibility.


Frank Harris: After battling an early season foot injury, Harris is back and looking like his best self. Overall, the Roadrunners have shaped up to be a top 50 offense nationally that is 41st in EPA/Pass and 35th in success rate.

South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick

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This should be a fun Friday night matchup with a sky high total that will feature big plays on both sides.

For UTSA, the team has been humming on offense ever since the start of conference play, scoring 34 or more in all six games and now up to nearly three points per drive on the season. The team is explosive and should test the Bulls' defense that is bottom five in explosive play rate. It's worth noting, though, that South Florida is 12th in the nation in tackles for loss, a testament to its boom-or-bust nature on defense.

On the other side, South Florida runs the ball at nearly a 55% clip behind the 6'3" freshman Brown, which is a soft spot of the UTSA defense. The unit has a vaunted defensive line that is third in the nation in sacks, but the team is 112th in explosive rush defense. First-year head coach Alex Golesh would be wise to keep this ball on the ground in hopes of not only playing keep away from Harris and the Roadrunners' offense but to finding soft spots in the opponents' defense.

UTSA has a massive game next week against Tulane in a matchup that will likely determine who goes to the AAC title game. There is a case to be made that the Roadrunners won't be very interested in running up the score and are content just getting a win, giving me some belief the Bulls can cover.

With that being said, I prefer the over in this one as both teams play at an incredibly fast pace -- South Florida is fourth in plays per minute while UTSA is 23rd -- and each offense can rip off explosive plays.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!