Spain vs. Sweden prediction and odds for Women's World Cup semifinals

Spain is primed to advance to the 2023 Women's World Cup Final.

Japan v Sweden: Quarter Final - FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023
Japan v Sweden: Quarter Final - FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023 / Eurasia Sport Images/GettyImages

We're down to the final four countries for the Women's World Cup and we are guaranteed to get a first time winner!

The four countries remaining, Sweden, Spain, Australia, and England have all never won the Women's World Cup. Sweden is the only team to have played in the final, losing to Germany in 2003.

The first of two semifinals will kick-off at 4 a.m. EST between Spain and Sweden. Let's take a look at the odds for the match and then I'll break down my best bet.

Spain vs. Sweden odds and total for semifinal match

Spain vs. Sweden prediction and pick for semifinal match

I'm still sticking to my take that Spain is the best team in this tournament and I don't think it's particularly close. If you look at expected goals per game, Spain has the best expected goal differential per match at +2.09.

Meanwhile, Sweden ranks 16th in expected goal differential per game at +0.01.

Sweden has been a curious case as it has continuously over performed throughout this tournament. Their actual goals vs. expected goals per game is +0.82. They find ways to score on the majority of their chances while also getting great goaltending from Zećira Mušović.

Are they able to continue to outperform expectations against the powerhouse Spain? I don't think so. Spain is too dominant for Sweden to overcome.

I'll back the Spanish at +115 in their semifinal matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.