Sportsbook Insider Explains Wild Odds Shift for Ravens vs. Buccaneers
By Ben Heisler
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last four games and 1-2 straight up at home. In primetime over the last three seasons? Brady is just 2-10-0 ATS.
So when odds began to shift heavily from the Baltimore Ravens as short road favorites to underdogs ahead of tonight's game on Thursday Night Football, many bettors were left puzzled at the move.
As of Thursday afternoon, the Bucs are laying anywhere from 1.5 to 2 points when they host the Ravens this evening at Raymond James Stadium with the total hovering between 45.5 and 46.
The original lookahead line featured Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite at home, but has zig-zagged throughout the course of the week with action coming in on both sides.
So where is the money coming in from, and what's the rationale behind the recent move?
We reached out to PointsBet's trading room for answers, and Content Analyst Mike Korn explained how the market has driven the move, rather than the book taking a side.
"In what has been perhaps the strangest year of Tom Brady's career, we are seeing some strange line movement for his upcoming TNF matchup." Korn told BetSided.
"Tampa Bay originally opened as 3-point favorites, but by Monday afternoon, the line flipped in the Ravens direction. Since then, we have seen steady action come back on the Bucs, pushing us to to move the line back the other way. Given all the instability throughout the week, it will be interesting to see where this line closes."
How Should Bettors Bet Ravens vs. Buccaneers?
BetSided's Donnavan Smoot broke down his favorite betting pick for tonight's matchup here, as well as several available prop bets and anytime touchdown scorers for Thursday Night Football.
One other note to consider is betting the UNDER in primetime games continues to remain a strong trend in 2022-23. UNDERs on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night through the first seven weeks of the season are 14-8 this year.
On Thursday Night Football in particular, unders are now 16-5 over the last 21 matchups.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.