St. Mary's San Francisco Prediction, Odds, Key Players for Saturday, Jan. 20

Nov 19, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; St. Mary's Gaels forward Joshua Jefferson (5) blocks out Xavier
Nov 19, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; St. Mary's Gaels forward Joshua Jefferson (5) blocks out Xavier / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Two WCC contenders meet on the Hilltop when St. Mary's travels to face San Francisco on Saturday night.

The Gaels have been white hot after a slow start to the season, playing Randy Bennett's disciplined style of basketball with maximum efficiency. Both teams are elite when it comes to cleaning the glass, is there an edge for either team in a game that will help sort out this conference title picture?

We got you covered with our betting preview:

New FanDuel users, don't miss out on this bonus offer for new users, which is giving new users $150 in bonus bets when they make a first wager of just $5! Get started below.

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco Odds, Spread and Total

San Francisco vs. St. Mary's Betting Trends

  • San Francisco is 13-5 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • San Francisco is 11-3 ATS as a favorite
  • San Francisco has gone OVER in eight of last 10 games

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, January 20th
  • Game Time: 10:00 PM EST
  • Venue: War Memorial Gymnasium
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • St. Mary's Record: 13-6
  • San Francisco Record: 15-4

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco Key Players to Watch

St. Mary's

Aidan Mahaney: The sophomore is slumping a bit after a massive freshman campaign, but is still averaging 14 points per game and the anchor behind this emerging Gaels offense.

San Francisco

Jonathan Mogbo: The Missouri State transfer is averaging 15 points nad 10 rebounds with a block and nearly two steals as well while shooting 68% from the floor. Mogbo is well in line for a spot on the WCC First Team, but will face a stiff test in St. Mary's stout drop coverage that will force him to work away from the rim.

St. Mary's vs. San Francisco Prediction and Pick

San Francisco has won seven straight games, but hasn't beaten a team inside KenPom's top 150 in that streak. Against Top 100 teams, San Francisco is 0-3. While the Dons are a rock solid team and by no means an easy out, I believe St. Mary's is the better group at the moment.

The Gaels have lost one game since December 5th and are as tough of an out as any team in the conference with the way the team shrinks the game into a halfcourt duel. The Gaels are 357th in adjusted tempo, allow the 13th lowest three-point rate in the country and are top 20 in both offensive rebounding rate and defensive rebounding rate.

It's tough to beat St. Mary's, especially against the team's drop coverage that forces you to settle for mid-range jump shots. That's a tough ask for the rim reliant Dons around Mogbo, who are fourth in near-rim field goal percentage. However, St. Mary's is seventh defending it as well as 10th in mid-range field goal percentage allowed.

If the Dons can't generate it's offense at the rim I envision the team is going to struggle to keep up with the Gales, who have solved its offensive woes in league play, posting the best WCC offense in terms of KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency.

I'll take St. Mary's to get it done on the road.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!