St. Mary's vs. Utah State Prediction and Odds: Aggies Undervalued at Home

We have a massive mid-major showdown in Logan, Utah on Thursday night with 6-1 Utah State Aggies playing host to St. Mary's.

Both teams have played power conference foes and have done incredibly well to date. Utah State beat the likes of Oklahoma already this season while St. Mary's took care of business against Oregon over the course of Feast Week.

So, who can get a leg up in a potential resume building showdown for the NCAA Tournament.

Let's break it down while checking out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

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St. Mary's vs. Utah State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• St. Mary's: -1 (-110)
• Utah State: +1 (-110)

Moneyline:

• St. Mary's: (-120)
• Utah State: (+100)

Total:

• 127.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

St. Mary's vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick

Utah State opened as 2.5 point favorites, but has now moved to +1, but I'm not concerned as I see the home team as the right side in this one.

While people may forget a few weeks ago, this Utah State made one of the most impressive runs of the first month of the season at the Myrtle Beach Invitational. Ryan Odom's team held off Penn in double overtime, blew out New Mexico State and knocking off Oklahoma in three consecutive days.

Justin Bean has been fantastic at forward for the Aggies, posting a 75% effective field goal percentage so far this season, the 15th best mark in the country despite taking a ton of shots from the perimeter. He also should give Gaels' No. 1 scoring threat Dan Fotu trouble on the defensive end as well.

St. Mary's is going to try and slow this game into a grind, the team plays outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo, but I trust Utah State's offense at home to find quality looks. While the visitors yield the 20th lowest 3-point rate in the country, Utah State can still score inside, posting the 44th best two-point percentage in the country and also shoot nearly 80% from the free throw line as a team.

I make this game closer to Utah State -3.5, and would play this at -2 or better if the line shifts back in the Aggies' favor. Lastly, don't sleep on the Aggies at home. Since 2015, Utah State is 46-31-2 against the spread at Dee Glen Smith Spectrum.

PICK: Utah State +1, play to -2