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Stanford vs. Hawaii Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 1

Can Hawaii build on a strong Week 0 showing?

By Reed Wallach

Aug 26, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Hawaii Warriors quarterback Brayden Schager (13) completes
Aug 26, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Hawaii Warriors quarterback Brayden Schager (13) completes / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
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Hawaii proved that its strong end to the season in 2022 (for bettors at least) was no joke in Week 0.

The Rainbow Warriors hung tough with an SEC foe in Vanderbilt in its season opener, building on last seasons end of the season in which it covered in seven of its last eight games. Now, Hawaii heads back to Honolulu in hopes of scoring a win at home against a rebuilding Stanford squad.

Sports bettors are impressed with Hawaii following Week 0, quickly betting this game from Rainbow Warriors +7 down to +3.5 as of this writing.

Want to get ready for the whole Week 1 slate, check out my betting breakdown on how I'm attacking three different totals across the opening slate, and how the new clock will impact games.

H2: [Away Team] vs. [Home Team] Odds, Spread and Total

Hawaii vs. Stanford Betting Trends

  • Hawaii has now covered eight of its last nine games including its Week 0 cover against Vanderbilt
  • Stanford went 2-10 against the spread (ATS) last season

Stanford vs. Hawaii How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, September 1st
  • Game Time: 11:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
  • How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
  • Stanford Record: 0-0
  • Hawaii Record: 0-1

Stanford vs. Hawaii Key Players to Watch

Stanford

E.J. Smith: Stanford has two unproven options at quarterback, so I expect a lot of pressure will be on the running back Smith to carry a rebuilding offense under first year head coach Troy Taylor. He only played in two games last season, but Smith is the highest upside player on this roster. At Sacramento State, Taylor ran a run-first offense that ran on 57% of plays, with a rebuild in Palo Alto, expect him to lean on the ground.

Hawaii

Brayden Schager: The early returns for Hawaii's run-n-shoot scheme looks far better than last season. The Rainbow Warriors ripped off more than eight yards per drop back, an elite mark against an SEC school nonetheless. Schager was in command of the offense, completing 26-of-33 passes for 306 yards with two touchdowns.

Stanford vs. Hawaii Prediction and Pick

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Stanford is a lot like what Hawaii was at the start of last season, transitioning schemes and devoid of talent as the new coach needs to implement in a whole new system and get his players in the building. Predictably, this number has been being bet towards the Hawaii side all summer, once a double digit spread in favor of the Cardinal. However, the Rainbow Warriors are a year ahead of Stanford's rebuild and it showed what a difference a year can make in Week 0.

Schager is one of the few holdovers from last season, and the team went toe-to-toe with Vanderbilt on the road, outgaining the Commodores by more than a yard per play. While Hawaii allowed a first half kick return go for a touchdown, the team outperformed the 17-point spread with an explosive offensive attack.

Stanford enters with a ton of question marks, ranking 130th in returning production (128th on offense and 122nd on defense), which makes it tough to project. The team will likely start Ari Patu, who has attempted 25 passes in six appearances across the prior two seasons, but I believe that the team is going to struggle to show a coherent game plan like Hawaii did on the road in year two of Chang's unique scheme.

While I like Hawaii quite a bit in this game due to the starting point of each team this season, the value is gone with the number continuing to shift towards the home team. Instead, I'll opt for the under.

First, the early forecast projects over 20 mile per hour winds in Honolulu on Friday night, never good for a total in the 60's. Second, Hawaii looked stout against the run specifically against Vandy, which we expect Stanford to lean on in this one, as noted above. The Rainbow Warriors defense allowed an EPA/Rush of-0.46, which grades out in the third percentile, per gameonpaper, when grading that game against last season's performance.

I think Hawaii is going to be a hindsight favorite in this one, but the under is my preferred play given the current market.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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