Steelers vs. Bills Prediction Odds, Spread and Over/Under for NFL Week 5 (Josh Allen Should Dominate)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) / Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers big upset came in Week 1 over the Buffalo Bills, but this year that looks even less likely as the Steelers are 1-3 coming off a loss to the Jets. The Bills are 3-1 and despite slipping up a bit the past two weeks are still the Super Bowl favorites. 

Mike Tomlin finally turned the keys over to Kenny Pickett, so the rookie will get a real test against one of the league's best defenses after three picks in one half of football. 

Steelers vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total

Buffalo and Pittsburgh Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh’s games are 2-2 to the over
  • Pittsburgh is 1-2-1 ATS
  • Pittsburgh is 1-2 outright as an underdog 
  • Buffalo is 2-1-1 ATS 
  • Buffalo’s games are 3-1 to the under

Steelers vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

This is like a classic Mike Tomlin spot for the Steelers. Underestimated, counted out, on the road, and he fires up the team to win a big game. I just don’t know that this Steelers team has enough talent for that to matter.

Kenny Pickett actually looked pretty good in his debut despite the three interceptions. He didn't have an incomplete pass and he had a few really good throws. The first interception was under thrown, but Chase Claypool made no play on the ball and the third was on a Hail Mary. He even ran in two touchdowns. 

Except that came against the Jets defense not the Bills who are fourth in the NFL in sacks and tied for first in interceptions. I’m not positive the offensive line is better, but the Steelers are about middle of the pack in sacks allowed. I have to believe Pickett will have the offense looking better next week, but the biggest problem for Pittsburgh is that they have no chance of stopping Josh Allen. 

They contained him last season because they got pressure with four rushers consistently and that entire game plan revolved around TJ Watt who is still out with an injury. In the fourth quarter the Steelers generated pressure on Zach Wilson just 16.7% of the time and didn’t blitz once. He diced them up to win the game. 

If Zach Wilson can do that, just imagine what Josh Allen will do. Again, I refuse to bet against my Steelers and will have my Kenny Pickett jersey on this Sunday, but I would advise you to take the Bills even as two touchdown favorites. This is the first game of a true gauntlet for the Steelers and they could very realistically be staring 1-7 in the face.

Pick: Bills -14

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